THE Nigerian president, Bola Ahmed Tinubu, marked his second year in office on May 29, 2025 and delivered an anniversary speech. In the speech, he highlighted key achievements, policy reforms, and economic growth in the country under his administration. While the speech aims to reassure Nigerians of his government’s commitment to fulfilling his renewed hope promises, it also contained several claims that warrant closer scrutiny.
The FactCheckHub examined the accuracy of some of the major statements made by Tinubu, separating facts from political rhetoric to provide a clearer and accurate picture of his administration’s performance. Here are some of them:
CLAIM 1
Multiple foreign exchange windows eliminated in Nigeria.
THE FINDINGS
Findings by The FactCheckHub show that the claim is TRUE.
One of the major reforms championed by Tinubu’s administration is the elimination of its multiple exchange rate system. On June 14, 2023, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) unified all segments of the foreign exchange market into a single window—the Investors and Exporters (I&E) window—where rates are determined by market forces under a “willing buyer, willing seller” model.
READ THIS: Two years on: Tinubu administration continues to reel out misleading information
This policy shift was part of broader economic reforms initiated by the Tinubu-led administration to enhance transparency, attract foreign investment, and reduce opportunities for arbitrage and corruption associated with the previous multiple exchange rate regime.
While the unification has led to a more market-reflective exchange rate, it has also resulted in significant volatility and a sharp depreciation of the naira. For instance, the naira fell to record lows against the U.S. dollar in both official and parallel markets following the reform.
As of May 29, 2025, the official exchange rate stands at approximately ₦1,586 per U.S. dollar. However, disparities between the official and parallel market rates persist, indicating that while the multiple exchange rate windows have been abolished, full convergence between official and unofficial rates is yet to be achieved.
THE VERDICT
The claim that the multiple foreign exchange windows has been eliminated is TRUE; public records revealed.
CLAIM 2
Nigeria’s debt service-to-revenue ratio dropped from 100% in 2022 to under 40% by 2024.
THE FINDINGS
Checks by The FactCheckHub show that the claim is FALSE.
In 2022, Nigeria’s debt service-to-revenue ratio was very high. The World Bank reported that the country spent 96.3% of its revenue on debt servicing that year. Additionally, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) indicated that the ratio reached 111.8% same year.
In the first quarter of 2024, debt servicing consumed about 74% of the federal government’s retained revenue. By July 2024, the nation’s Finance minister, Wale Edun, stated that the ratio had declined from 97% in 2023 to 68% in 2024.
Also, President Tinubu, during the inauguration ceremony of newly appointed ministers in November 2024, announced that the ratio had further decreased to 65%, attributing the improvement to economic reforms.
However, an April 2025 report by CNBCAfrica and News Central TV noted that Nigeria’s debt servicing costs soared to 144% of government retained revenue in January 2025, citing a Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) report.
THE VERDICT
The claim that the debt service-to-revenue ratio dropped from 100% in 2022 to under 40% by 2024 is FALSE; findings show that while there was notable decrease to around 65% in November 2024, it soared to 144% by January 2025, according to media reports.
CLAIM 3
Inflation has begun to decline, and the prices of staples like rice are falling across Nigeria.
THE FINDINGS
Findings by The FactCheckHub show that the claim is TRUE.
Nigeria recently rebased its consumer price index (CPI) from 2009 to 2024, leading to a significant drop in the reported inflation rate from 34.80 per cent to 24.48 per cent in January 2025.
Inflation rate rebasing follows a structured approach led by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) to improve the accuracy of inflation measurements. Essentially what it means is that the NBS expanded its data collection efforts to include a broader range of states, local government areas, and rural communities.
Since the rebasing, inflation headline has begun to go downward spiral. It dropped to 23.18 per cent, 24.23% and 23.71 per cent in February, March and April 2025 respectively.
Surveys conducted in major markets across Nigeria indicate a substantial decrease in the prices of essential food items recently.
For instance, in Lagos, the price of a 50kg bag of rice dropped from ₦90,000–₦95,000 in January 2025 to around ₦75,000 by March. The cost of a 50kg bag of beans decreased from ₦105,000 in January to ₦80,000.
These price reductions are attributed to several factors, including improved agricultural practices, favorable weather conditions leading to bumper harvests, and the cessation of hoarding activities by traders. Additionally, government initiatives to boost food production and the lifting of bans on certain food imports have increased supply, contributing to the price decline.
Despite these positive developments, challenges persist. While food prices have decreased, they remain relatively high compared to previous years, and many Nigerians continue to struggle with food affordability. Moreover, factors such as climate change-induced water scarcity and security issues in farming regions in the country continue to pose risks to sustained agricultural productivity.
THE VERDICT
The claim that inflation has begun to decline, and the prices of staples like rice are falling is TRUE. However, the inflation came down after NBS changed the methodology while the prices of food stuff are nothing near the previous years prices, prior to Tinubu’s administration.
CLAIM 4
Tinubu says over 1,000 PHCs have been revitalized while 5,500 more are being upgraded.
THE FINDINGS
Findings by The FactCheckHub show that the claim is MOSTLY FALSE.
In April 2025, multiple media outlets such as Premium Times, Guardian and Punch reported that the federal government had upgraded 901 PHC’s with 2,700 more to be targeted this year
The Executive Director and CEO of the National Primary Health Care Development Agency (NPHCDA), Dr. Muyi Aina, disclosed this during the PHC update and 2025 African Vaccination Week press briefing held in Abuja.
THE VERDICT
The claim that Tinubu’s administration has revitalized over 1,000 Primary Health Care Centres is MOSTLY FALSE; media reports indicate that they were 901 as of April 2025, though there was no May 2025 data.
CLAIM 5
Nigeria’s oil rig counts up by over 400% in 2025 compared to 2021.
THE FINDINGS
Checks by The FactCheckHub show that the claim is TRUE.
Nigeria’s oil rig count is a vital indicator of upstream oil and gas activities, reflecting the nation’s exploration and production efforts. Historically, the rig count has fluctuated due to various factors, including global oil prices, domestic policies, and industry dynamics.
In recent years, there has been a notable increase in Nigeria’s rig count, attributed to the implementation of the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA), which has fostered a more favorable environment for investment and operations in the sector.
The Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) plays a pivotal role in overseeing and regulating upstream petroleum operations in Nigeria.
DON’T MISS THIS: In Democracy Day speech, Buhari’s GDP growth rate contradicts figures from CBN, IMF, others
Established under the PIA, the NUPRC is responsible for ensuring compliance with industry standards, promoting transparency, and facilitating sustainable development in the oil and gas sector.
As part of its mandate, the NUPRC publishes the Rig Disposition Report, a comprehensive document that provides detailed information on the status and distribution of drilling rigs across Nigeria. According to the report, Nigeria has a rig count of 62 as of April 2025. This is 675% higher than eight that it was in 2021.
THE VERDICT
The claim that Nigeria’s oil rig counts increased by over 400% in 2025 compared to 2021 is TRUE; data by NUPRC show.
CLAIM 6
Nigeria’s fiscal deficit reduced from 5.4% of GDP in 2023 to 3.0% in 2024.
THE FINDINGS
Findings by The FactCheckHub show the claim is TRUE.
In Nigeria, a fiscal deficit occurs when the government’s total expenditure exceeds its total revenue (excluding borrowings) within a fiscal year. This situation indicates that the government is spending more than it earns, necessitating borrowing to finance the gap. Persistent fiscal deficits can lead to increased public debt and may impact economic stability.
The fiscal deficit is calculated by subtracting the total government revenue (excluding borrowings) from the total government expenditure. To assess the deficit relative to the size of the economy, it is often expressed as a percentage of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP). This metric helps in evaluating the government’s fiscal health and sustainability.
According to Nigeria’s Fiscal Responsibility Act, the fiscal deficit should not exceed 3% of the country’s GDP to ensure fiscal discipline and economic stability.
According to World Bank, the Nigerian government revenue rose by 4.5% of GDP last year, a “remarkable achievement” driven by the removal of foreign exchange subsidies, improved tax administration and higher remittances.
The higher revenue helped cut the fiscal deficit to an estimated 3% of GDP in 2024, from 5.4% in 2023.
THE VERDICT
The claim that Nigeria’s fiscal deficit reduced from 5.4% of GDP in 2023 to 3.0% in 2024 is TRUE; the World Bank data show.
CLAIM 7
Ways and Means financing discontinued by Tinubu’s administration.
THE FINDINGS
Checks by The FactCheckHub show that the claim is TRUE.
According to a Punch report, Ways and Means is the money that the CBN lends to the Nigerian government in the meantime to augment spending based on the time the revenue is generated.
Reports from The Cable and Punch show that the current administration halted the Way and Means loan in an announcement made by the CBN governor, Olayemi Cardoso, on February 9, 2024, in an appearance before the Senate Committees on Finance, Appropriations, Banking, Insurance, and Other Financial Institutions.
THE VERDICT
The claim that the way and means loan was discontinued during Tinubu-led administration is TRUE, media reports confirmed.
CLAIM 8
Nigeria’s external reserves grew from $4 billion in 2023 to over $23 billion by end of 2024.
THE FINDINGS
Check by The FactCheckHub shows that the claim is TRUE.
The CBN reported that Nigeria’s net foreign exchange (FX) reserves (NFER) increased from $3.99 billion at the end of 2023 to $23.11 billion by December 2024, marking a 479% rise and the highest level in over three years. According to a Vanguard report, the CBN stated that the $23.11 billion figure represents a significant recovery from $3.99 billion at year-end 2023, $8.19 billion in 2022, and $14.59 billion in 2021. This was also corroborated by a TVC News video report.
THE VERDICT
The claim that Nigeria’s external reserves grew from $4 billion in 2023 to over $23 billion by end of 2024 is TRUE; reports from credible media outlets confirmed.
CLAIM 9
Health insurance enrollees expanded from 16 million to 20 million in Nigeria.
THE FINDINGS
Findings by The FactCheckHub show that the claim is MOSTLY TRUE.
In December 2024, the National Health Insurance Authority (NHIA) announced an increase in insurance coverage from 16.7 million to approximately 19.2 million individuals — a 14% rise in less than a year. NHIA Director-General, Dr. Kelechi Ohiri, revealed this during a media parley in December 2024.
ALSO READ: Did Oyo IGR increase by 26.4%, Is Kaduna planning to tax everyone above 18?
This was also reiterated a few days later by Dr. Ohiri at the Universal Health Coverage (UHC) Day event, where he emphasized the need to further scale up enrollment in 2025 to 20 million.
THE VERDICT
The claim that Nigeria’s health insurance have been expanded from 16 million to 20 million enrollees is MOSTLY TRUE; 19.2 million Nigerians have been enrolled as at December 2024.
CLAIM 10
Nigeria’s GDP recorded 4.6% growth in Q4 2024 and a full-year 2024 growth at 3.4%.
THE FINDINGS
Checks by The FactCheckHub show that the claim is TRUE!
In 2024, Nigeria’s economy showed notable resilience, recording a GDP growth of 4.6% in the fourth quarter and an overall annual growth rate of 3.4%, Proshare reported. This marks one of the country’s strongest economic performances in the past decade, driven by robust aggregate demand, improved agricultural output, and a rebound in key non-oil sectors.
According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), the services sector was the primary driver of this growth, expanding by 5.37% in Q4 2024 and contributing 57.38% to the total GDP, Vanguard also reported in February 2025. Key contributors within the sector included financial services, insurance, and telecommunications.
THE VERDICT
The claim that Nigeria’s GDP grew by 4.6% in Q4 2024, and full year growth at 3.4 % is TRUE.
Nurudeen Akewushola is a fact-checker with FactCheckHub. He has authored several fact checks which have contributed to the fight against information disorder. You can reach him via nyahaya@icirnigeria.org and @NurudeenAkewus1 via Twitter.
Seasoned fact-checker and researcher Fatimah Quadri has written numerous fact-checks, explainers, and media literacy pieces for The FactCheckHub in an effort to combat information disorder. She can be reached at sunmibola_q on X or fquadri@icirnigeria.org.
