THE Labour Party presidential candidate in Nigeria’s 2023 election, Peter Obi, appeared on Arise Television‘s Prime Time on April 1, 2025, where he spoke about how the nation is faring under President Bola Ahmed Tinubu-led administration.
Obi spoke on various issues ranging from insecurity, unemployment and poverty as well as the political crisis in Rivers state, which led to the declaration of a state of emergency by the president.
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In this fact-check, The FactCheckHub assesses the veracity of some of his claims.
CLAIM 1
There are over 20 million children out of school in Nigeria.
THE FINDINGS
The United Nations Educational Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) 2020 Model Estimates on out-of-school children, published in 2022, states that almost 20 million Nigerian children are out of school.
According to the data, India, Nigeria, and Pakistan have the highest figures for out-of-school children globally.
The data show that the secondary school out-of-school population has grown by 61 per cent, from 6.3 million to 10 million since 2010.
Also, the number of primary school-aged children who are not in school also increased by 50 per cent, from 6.4 million to 9.7 million since 2010.
Globally, this puts Nigeria as the country with the third highest number of children deprived of education, only behind India and Pakistan.
THE VERDICT
The claim that over 20 million children are out of school in Nigeria is MOSTLY TRUE; the 2022 UNESCO data puts the estimate at 20 million.
CLAIM 2
South Africa is the largest economy in Africa.
THE FINDINGS
Checks by The FactCheckHub show that the claim is TRUE.
The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is an indicator of any nation’s economic size. It measures the value of goods and services produced in a country over a certain period.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF), a global financial institution with 191 member countries, tracks and publishes economic data including GDP.
Nigeria was Africa’s biggest economic powerhouse between 2012 and 2016, based on IMF data. It dropped to second place in 2017 but returned to pole position the following year and maintained this spot until 2022. Egypt overtook Nigeria in 2023 to become Africa’s largest economy.
According to the IMF’s 2024 GDP estimates, South Africa is the biggest economy in Africa with a GDP Of $403.05 billion followed by Eypt and Algeria with GDP of $380.04 billion and $260.13 billion respectively. Nigeria’s economy is placed fourth with a GDP of $199.72 billion.
THE VERDICT
The claim that South Africa is the largest economy in Africa is TRUE; latest estimates by the IMF show.
CLAIM 3
A federal lawmaker can lose his seat in South Africa and UK for defecting to another political party.
THE FINDINGS
Findings by The FactCheckHub show that the claim is HALF-TRUE.
In South Africa, originally, Members of Parliament (MPs) who switched political parties would lose their seats. However, the. nation’s 1996 Constitution allowed for adjustments to this rule, leading to a bill in November 2001 that permitted floor-crossing within a designated two-week period without penalty. The President of South Africa, in consultation with party leaders and provincial premiers, had the authority to set the time frame for this process.
A subsequent law further refined the system, allowing MPs to change parties twice within a five-year term without losing their seats. However, defections were only permitted if at least ten percent of a party’s representatives agreed to switch, a measure introduced to prevent political opportunism. MPs wishing to cross the floor had to notify the country’s Independent Electoral Commission (IEC), which is responsible for determining the specific timeframe during which the defection could occur.
However, in the United Kingdom, Members of the Parliament (MP) do not face any sanction when they cross the floor to another party but they may face pressure from other MPs and the public. They are also allowed to change their party affiliations at any time.
THE VERDICT
The claim that a federal lawmaker can lose his seat in South Africa and UK for defecting to another political party is HALF-TRUE, while there are laws and sanctions guiding floor crossing in South Africa, there is none in the United Kingdom.
CLAIM 4
The cost of Nigeria’s debt servicing is higher than its budget for education and health sectors.
THE FINDINGS
Findings by The FactCheckHub show that the claim is TRUE!
Nigeria’s 2025 budget highlights a significant allocation to debt servicing, which overshadows critical sectors such as education, healthcare and infrastructure. The government has earmarked ₦15.81 trillion for debt servicing—more than double the combined budget for education (₦3.5 trillion) and health (₦2.48 trillion), which together total ₦5.98 trillion.
This debt repayment figure also surpasses the cumulative allocation for key sectors, including security (₦4.9 trillion), infrastructure (₦4.06 trillion), education, and healthcare, which together amount to ₦14.95 trillion.
For context, in Nigeria’s 2023 national budget, debt servicing accounted for 29% of total spending, while education received 8%, healthcare 5%, and infrastructure 6%.
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In 2024, the government planned to spend ₦27.5 trillion ($34.7 billion), with 30% allocated to debt servicing. Meanwhile, education will receive 7.9%, healthcare 5%, and infrastructure a similar proportion.
These figures highlight the country’s growing debt burden, which continues to limit investments in critical sectors essential for national development.
THE VERDICT
The claim that the cost of Nigeria’s debt servicing is higher than its budget for both education and health sectors is TRUE, as the nation’s budgets from recent years show.
CLAIM 5
Nigeria has less than 5% health insurance to comparable countries like Indonesia with 95%.
THE FINDINGS
Checks by The FactCheckHub show that the claim is FALSE!
A report from Nairametrics highlights that by October 2024, Nigeria had enrolled 19.18 million people in its health insurance programmes, representing about 8.9% of the population. According to the Director General, National Health Insurance Authority (NHIA), Dr. Kelechi Ohiri, this feat was at the end of Q3 in 2024.
In December 2024, the number grew to 19.2 million people; this was also disclosed by Dr. Ohiri in a report from the Punch.
Meanwhile, an article from The Jakarta Globe reports that as of August 2024, JKN coverage reached 98.19% of Indonesia’s population. JKN is the National Health Insurance Scheme of Indonesia.
However, the above data show that Nigeria’s health insurance enrollment is higher than the 5 per cent as claimed by Obi while the health insurance enrollment in Indonesia is currently put at 98.19 per cent.
THE VERDICT
The claim that Nigeria has less than 5% health insurance to comparable countries like Indonesia with 95% is FALSE. Data show that Nigeria’s health insurance sits at 8.9% while the enrollment rate in Indonesia is at 98.19%.
CLAIM 6
Nigeria has spent over N35 billion on its International Conference Centre (ICC).
THE FINDINGS
Findings by The FactCheckHub reveal that the claim is TRUE.
Nigeria’s president, Bola Ahmed Tinubu, during the ECOWAS Parliament inauguration on April 4, 2024, condemned the dilapidated state of the Abuja International Conference Centre, describing it as an ‘eyesore,’ and subsequently ordered its rehabilitation.
Following this directive, FCT minister, Nyesom Wike, suspended all activities at the facility on April 8, 2024, to allow the contractor to begin the renovation work. Wike emphasized that the restoration was critical to bringing the centre back to international standards, as its previous condition had significantly tarnished its reputation.
According to Wike, the Federal Capital Territory Administration (FCTA) has invested approximately N39 billion in the renovation of the Abuja International Conference Centre. As of March 2025, the project is 70% to 80% complete, with an expected completion date in May 2025.
THE VERDICT
The claim that Nigeria has spent over 35 billion on Nigeria Conference Center is TRUE, media reports show that 39 billion has been rolled out for the rehabilitation of Nigeria’s International Conference center.
CLAIM 7
Bangladesh with 148,000 square kilometers of land is producing about 60 million tons metric of rice and Nigeria with over six times of its size of land cannot do 10% of that.
THE FINDINGS
Findings by The FactCheckHub show that the claim is HALF-TRUE.
Bangladesh, with a total landmass of 147,570 square kilometers (56,977 Sq. miles), is one of the most densely populated countries in the world, and its agricultural land (130,170 sq km) is heavily utilized. Whereas Nigeria has more than six times the land area of Bangladesh, making it one of the largest countries in Africa with a total landmass of 923,768 square kilometers (356,667 sq miles).
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The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) estimates that Bangladesh’s rice production for the 2024/2025 marketing year is approximately 36.8 million metric tons (milled basis), and 54.9 million in (rough basis) slightly down from the previous year.
The harvested area is expected to be 11.5 million hectares, which is a 2% decrease compared to last year. This reduction in area is attributed to challenges during both the aus and aman seasons. Despite this, Bangladesh’s yield is forecasted to reach a record 4.80 tons per hectare, which is a 2% increase from the previous year.
According to the data from USDA, Bangladesh has never produced 60 million tons of rice in milled and even rough production since 2014.
However, Nigeria in 2023/2024 produced 5.6 million metric tons in milled and 8.9 million in rough basis, according to the USDA data. But in January 2025, Punch reported that Nigeria’s rice production (rough basis) has dropped to 8.3 million, while the milled rice is pegged at 5.2 million.
In conclusion, Bangladesh highest rice production (rough basis) since 2014 was 55.5 million metric tons in 2023/2024 season while Nigeria’s highest rice production (rough basis) since 2014 was during the same 2023/2024 season and puts at 8.9 million tons. Thus, despite Nigeria’s landmass is truly over six times bigger than that of Bangladesh, its rice production is more than 10 per cent of that of Bangladesh – in fact, it is around 15-16%.
THE VERDICT
The claim that Bangladesh, with 148,000 square kilometers of land, produces about 60 million metric tons of rice while Nigeria, with over six times its land area, cannot produce 10% of its rice production is HALF-TRUE; Nigeria actually produces between 15-16% of that of Bangladesh.
Seasoned fact-checker and researcher Fatimah Quadri has written numerous fact-checks, explainers, and media literacy pieces for The FactCheckHub in an effort to combat information disorder. She can be reached at sunmibola_q on X or fquadri@icirnigeria.org.
Nurudeen Akewushola is a fact-checker with FactCheckHub. He has authored several fact checks which have contributed to the fight against information disorder. You can reach him via nyahaya@icirnigeria.org and @NurudeenAkewus1 via Twitter.
