Fact-checking Tinubu’s independence day speech

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Summary

In this report, we fact-checked some of the claims made by President Tinubu using verifiable data and official sources. Our report seeks to separate accurate information from possible exaggerations or misrepresentations, offering a clearer view of the nation’s current situation.

IN an early morning nationwide broadcast on Monday, October 1, 2024, the Nigerian president, Bola Ahmed Tinubu, shared updates on the nation’s progress, economic outlook, and security measures as Nigeria celebrated its 64th anniversary. 

Nigeria commemorates its Independence Day annually on October 1st, celebrating its liberation from the British colonial rule in 1960. This day marks the country’s emergence as a sovereign state and symbolises its journey toward self-governance, unity, and national progress. Historically, it serves as a platform for governments to emphasise unity, showcase achievements, and outline plans for the future.

READ: ‘Hunger’ protests: Fact-checking Tinubu’s nationwide broadcast to Nigerians

In this report, we fact-checked some of the claims made by President Tinubu using verifiable data and official sources. Our report seeks to separate accurate information from possible exaggerations or misrepresentations, offering a clearer view of the nation’s current situation.

 

CLAIM 1

Tinubu says “After Vice President Kashim Shettima visited Maiduguri, I also visited to assure our people that this federal government will always stand with our people in their times of trouble.”

THE FINDINGS

Findings by The FactCheckHub show that the claim is TRUE.

On September 10, 2024, about 40 per cent of Maiduguri, Borno State’s capital, in northeastern Nigeria, was flooded due to a breach of the nearby Alau Dam. which resulted in the death of at least 37 people while 58 persons were injured.

Nigeria’s Vice President, Kashim Shettima, had gone to visit the flood victims when it happened while Tinubu was away at China and the UK.

However, on September 16 and 17,  media outlets reported that  Tinubu had gone to visit the victims to sympathise with them while assuring them of the federal government’s support.

THE VERDICT

The claim that Tinubu had gone to visit the Maiduguri flood victims after he visited China is TRUE.

 

CLAIM 2

Tinubu says “At the last meeting of the Federal Executive Council, we approved a Disaster Relief Fund to mobilise private and public sector funds to help us respond faster to emergencies.”

THE FINDINGS

Findings by The FactCheckHub show that the claim is TRUE.

The last Federal Executive Council (FEC) meeting took place on September 23, 2024 which was on a Monday and some of the major highlights that were discussed during the meeting was the setting up of relief funds.

Premium Times reported that the FEC meeting discussed the recent flooding in various regions of the country, particularly the one that devastated nearly half of Maiduguri in Borno State. It also expressed support for the President’s proposal to establish a Disaster Relief Fund, which would be financed through a portion of the revenue from the federation account, along with contributions from the private sector.

THE VERDICT

The claim that the disaster relief fund was approved during the last FEC meeting is TRUE.

 

CLAIM 3

“Our government has also ordered integrity tests of all our dams in the country to avert future disasters,” says Tinubu.

THE FINDINGS

Checks by The FactCheckHub show that the claim is TRUE!

The decision was made also during the last FEC meeting after President Tinubu had announced the disaster relief fund for flood victims, a committee was constituted after the meeting to reassess the Alau Dam and other dams across the country to prevent re-occurrence.

The FEC, headed by President Tinubu, mandated the Committee to develop detailed designs and recommendations for the overall reconstruction of the Alau Dam for future use.

Speaking to journalists after the FEC meeting, Minister of Water Resources, Professor Joseph Utsev, disclosed that the Council extensively deliberated on the flood situation across the country with emphasis on Maiduguri flooding.

Members of the constituted committee on the review of Alau Dam and others include the Minister of Finance, Wale Edun; Minister of Water Resources and Sanitation, Prof Joseph Utsev; Minister of Agriculture and Food Security, Abubakar Kyari and few others.

THE VERDICT

The claim that the federal government has ordered integrity tests for all the dams is TRUE.

 

CLAIM 4

Tinubu says that Nigeria attracted foreign direct investments worth more than $30 billion in the last year.

THE FINDINGS

Checks by The FactCheckHub show that the claim is FALSE.

Nigeria received a total of $59.77 million in foreign direct investment (FDI) in the third quarter of 2023 when Tinubu became Nigeria’s president, according to official data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). In the fourth quarter of 2023, FDI amounted to $183.97 million, while the first quarter of 2024 saw $119.18 million in earnings. Altogether, Nigeria attracted $362.92 million in foreign direct investment over the nine-month period between July 2023 and March 2024. This is lower than the amount mentioned by Tinubu.

THE VERDICT

The claim that Nigeria attracted foreign direct investments worth more than $30 billion in 2023 is FALSE, according to NBS data.

 

CLAIM 5

Nigeria inherited a reserve of over $33 billion 16 months ago, says Tinubu.

THE FINDINGS

When he left office in May 2023, Ex-President Muhammadu Buhari handed over $35 billion of Nigeria’s foreign reserve to the Tinubu’s administration.

Whilst Tinubu’s government has relied more on crude oil exports to boost external reserves, the Buhari administration relied on external loans. Reserves act as a buffer against external shocks and provide confidence to investors.

THE VERDICT

The claim that the Tinubu’s administration inherited $33 billion is MOSTLY FALSE, because the foreign reserves he inherited is higher than the amount mentioned.

 

CLAIM 6

Since then, we have paid back the inherited forex backlog of $7 billion.

THE FINDINGS

Checks by The FactCheckHub show that the claim is TRUE.

Nigeria has faced significant economic challenges in recent years, including issues related to foreign exchange (FX) obligations and debt service ratios. The country’s dependency on oil revenues and fluctuating global oil prices have exacerbated these challenges, leading to substantial FX backlogs and mounting debt.

On February 5, 2024, the governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), Olayemi Cardoso, said he inherited a $7 billion foreign exchange (FX) backlog when he became the head of the apex bank in September 2023. However, it later dropped to $2.2 billion. By March 2024, the CBN said it had concluded the payment of $1.5 billion and successfully settled all outstanding forex obligations.

The acting director of Corporate Communications at the CBN, Hakama Sidi Ali, disclosed that independent auditors from Deloitte Consulting meticulously assessed these transactions, ensuring that only legitimate claims were honoured.

She said any invalid transactions were promptly referred to the relevant authorities for further scrutiny.

“Clearance of the foreign exchange transactions backlog is part of the overall strategy detailed in last month’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting to stabilise the exchange rate and thereby curb imported inflation, spurring confidence in the banking system and the economy,” Ali said.

THE VERDICT

The claim by Tinubu that Nigeria has cleared legitimate outstanding foreign exchange obligations of about $7 billion is TRUE, media reports citing CBN noted.

 

CLAIM 7

Tinubu says Nigeria has cleared the ways and means debt of over N30 trillion.

THE FINDINGS

Findings by The FactCheckHub show that the claim is MISLEADING.

Ways and means is a loan facility through which the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) provides short-term financing to cover the federal government’s budget shortfalls.

Borrowing via ways and means must be temporary and should only occur “in respect of temporary deficiency of budget revenue,” according to Section 38 (1) of the CBN Act. This means that the CBN can only lend to the Federal Government when the latter has a temporary revenue shortfall.

ALSO READ: Doctored video of Tinubu promising to reduce purchasing power resurfaces online

On May 3, 2023, the Nigerian Senate approved the securitisation of the N22.7 trillion loan request made by former President Muhammadu Buhari.

In December 2023, the National Assembly approved President Tinubu’s request for the securitisation of outstanding N7.3 trillion ways and means debt balance. This makes the country’s public debt partly increased to N121.67 trillion in the first quarter (Q1) of 2024, according to the Debt Management Office (DMO).

In May 2023, the Debt Management Office (DMO) gazetted what the securitisation would mean for the Federal Government. The key terms include a 40-year tenor, a three-year moratorium on principal repayments, and an interest rate of 9% per annum, with repayment of the principal amortized over 37 years. The purpose of this securitization is not to raise new funds from the public, but to formalize the CBN’s previous advances to the government.

A screenshot showing the DMO’s gazette of the debt.

This process is expected to improve debt transparency, as the securitized advances will now be part of Nigeria’s public debt statistics. Moreover, the new 9% interest rate is significantly lower than the current Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) of 18% plus 3%, which effectively reduces the cost of servicing this debt and helps lower the national budget deficit.

Repayments on the securitized debt will include interest payments starting in 2023, with principal repayments beginning in the fourth year. These payments will be accounted for in the federal budget each year. It is important to note that this securitization does not involve the provision of new funds to the government since the funds were already disbursed by the CBN.

The securitization plan requires approval from both the Senate and the House of Representatives before it can be implemented. This process aims to provide financial relief by cutting interest expenses, which could reduce the need for new borrowing in the future.

THE VERDICT

The claim by Tinubu that Nigeria has cleared the ways and means debt of over N30 trillion is MISLEADING, as official document shows it is expected to be repaid over a period of 40 years.

 

CLAIM 8

Nigeria has reduced the debt service ratio from 97 per cent to 68 per cent, says Tinubu.

THE FINDINGS

During a press conference in July 2024, Nigeria’s minister of Finance, Wale Edun, said that Nigeria’s debt service to revenue ratio has declined from 97 per cent in 2023 to 68 per cent in 2024, indicating a reduction in the government’s debt burden.

The minister said the country’s revenue is now being managed to promote transparency, accountability, and visibility of government spending.

THE VERDICT

The claim by Tinubu that Nigeria has reduced the debt service ratio from 97 per cent to 68 per cent is TRUE, according to media reports.

 

CLAIM 9

Tinubu says Nigeria has managed to keep its foreign reserve at $37 billion.

THE FINDINGS

Reserves are all those foreign assets of a country held by the monetary authorities which can be mobilized at period of external imbalances with else and certainty. External reserves are held in the form of “earning assets” notably government’s foreign security or in the form of “non-earning” liquid assets like gold bars in the vault of Central Banks.

In Nigeria, the composition of the external reserve consists of gold, IMF reserve tranche, Special Drawing Rights (SDRS) and convertible currencies. The major sources of external reserves are derivable from the components of foreign exchange inflows which include: receipt from petroleum, service income, other invisible items, capital importation, interest payments on foreign securities, external borrowing/foreign aids and grants, and non-oil export proceeds among others.

According to data obtained from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), Nigeria’s gross external reserves stood at $38.058billion as of September 27, 2024.

THE VERDICT

The claim by Tinubu that Nigeria’s foreign reserve is $37 billion is MOSTLY TRUE, as the figure is higher by over $1billion, according to CBN data.

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Nurudeen Akewushola is a fact-checker with FactCheckHub. He has authored several fact checks which have contributed to the fight against information disorder. You can reach him via [email protected] and @NurudeenAkewus1 via Twitter.

Fact-checker at The FactheckHub  | [email protected] | + posts

Seasoned fact-checker and researcher Fatimah Quadri has written numerous fact-checks, explainers, and media literacy pieces for The FactCheckHub in an effort to combat information disorder. She can be reached at sunmibola_q on X or [email protected].

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