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Nigeria at 66: Fact-checking Tinubu’s Independence Day economics

Nurudeen Akewushola
Nurudeen Akewushola
Reading Time: 5 min.
President Bola Ahmed Tinubu.
President Bola Ahmed Tinubu.

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IN his Independence Day address on Thursday, 1 October 2026, Nigerian president Bola Tinubu highlighted what he described as improvements in the country’s economic performance, including growth in gross domestic product (GDP), declining inflation, reduced oil theft and record non-oil export earnings.

Nigeria celebrates its Independence Day every 1 October to mark its independence from British colonial rule in 1960. The annual address provides the president an opportunity to reflect on the country’s progress, highlight government achievements and outline its economic and security priorities.

In this report, The FactCheckHub examines four economic claims made by Tinubu using official statistics and other verifiable sources.

CLAIM 1

Tinubu says, “Our economy has grown by over 4 per cent this year.”

FINDINGS

Findings by The FactCheckHub show that the claim is TRUE.

The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) estimated that Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 4.43 per cent year-on-year in the second quarter of 2026, according to its latest GDP report published in August 2026. This represents an improvement from the 3.89 per cent growth recorded in the first quarter of 2026.

The second-quarter growth means that economic activity expanded at a faster pace than in the preceding quarter. It also represents an increase from the 3.13 per cent growth recorded in the second quarter of 2025, indicating that the pace of economic expansion strengthened year-on-year.

According to the NBS quarterly GDP series, the 4.43 per cent growth recorded in Q2 2026 was the highest quarterly growth rate since Q3 2024, when the economy grew by 3.86 per cent.

Infographic showing GDP growth.

The NBS data therefore support president Tinubu’s claim that Nigeria’s economy has grown by more than four per cent in 2026, although the figure refers specifically to year-on-year real GDP growth in the second quarter of 2026, rather than growth for the entire year.

VERDICT

The claim that Nigeria’s economy has grown by over four per cent this year is TRUE.

CLAIM 2

Tinubu says, “Inflation has fallen substantially from its peak.”

FINDINGS

Findings by The FactCheckHub show that the claim is TRUE.

Inflation measures how much the prices of goods and services have risen over time, typically over a year. It is measured using the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which tracks changes in the cost of goods and services commonly purchased by households.

Nigeria’s headline inflation rate fell to 15.39 per cent in August 2026, from 23.14 per cent in August 2025, according to the NBS. The August 2026 figure was calculated using the rebased CPI, which uses 2024 as the base year.

The decline means that the rate at which the average prices of goods and services increased was considerably lower in August 2026 than a year earlier. The headline inflation rate fell by 7.75 percentage points between August 2025 and August 2026.

On a month-on-month basis, headline inflation stood at 0.71 per cent in August 2026, meaning that average prices continued to increase during the month, although at a slower rate than the annual inflation figure might suggest. Month-on-month inflation measures the change in prices from one month to the next, while the year-on-year figure compares prices with those recorded in the same month of the previous year.

The moderation was also recorded in food inflation, although food prices continued to rise faster than the overall inflation rate. Food inflation stood at 19.57 per cent year-on-year in August 2026, compared with the headline inflation rate of 15.39 per cent, according to the NBS. (Note: Food inflation is the year‑on‑year percentage increase in the prices of food and non‑alcoholic beverages, typically measured using a country’s food CPI).

However, a fall in the inflation rate does not mean that the prices of goods and services have fallen or returned to their previous levels. Inflation measures the rate at which prices are changing. Therefore, if inflation falls from 20 per cent to 15 per cent, prices are still increasing, but at a slower rate than before.

The NBS data support the claim that the rate of inflation has fallen substantially. This, however, does not mean that the cost of living has returned to the levels recorded before the period of high inflation.

VERDICT

The claim that inflation has fallen substantially from its peak is TRUE. Official figures show a marked decline in the annual inflation rate, although the cost of goods and services remains a concern for households.

CLAIM 3

Tinubu says, “Oil theft is down.”

FINDINGS

Findings by The FactCheckHub show that the claim is TRUE.

Data from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) show a substantial decline in reported crude oil losses attributed to theft and metering issues between 2021 and July 2025.

According to the commission, Nigeria recorded average crude oil losses of 9,600 barrels per day in the seven months to July 2025, the lowest level recorded since 2009. NUPRC said this represented a decline from an average of 11,300 barrels per day in 2024.

The commission’s figures show that average daily crude oil losses fell from 102,900 barrels per day in 2021 to 57,200 barrels per day in 2022, before declining further to 11,900 barrels per day in 2023 and 11,300 barrels per day in 2024.

NUPRC also reported that between January and July 2025, Nigeria lost 2.04 million barrels of crude oil, equivalent to an average of 9,600 barrels per day. This was about 50.2 per cent lower than the 4.1 million barrels recorded over the whole of 2024. The commission said the 2021 figure represented the highest level of crude oil losses recorded in nearly 23 years.

The commission attributed the decline to a combination of security operations and regulatory measures. These included collaboration with security agencies, oil producers and host communities, as well as measures to improve the measurement of production and exports. NUPRC also said it had introduced metering audits and approved 37 new crude oil evacuation routes to help address oil losses.

VERDICT

The claim that oil theft is down is TRUE. Official data show a substantial reduction in reported crude oil losses.

CLAIM 4

Tinubu says that “in 2025, Nigeria recorded its highest revenue from non-oil exports in its history, exceeding $6 billion.”

FINDINGS

Findings by The FactCheckHub show that the claim is TRUE.

The Nigerian Export Promotion Council (NEPC) reported that Nigeria’s non-oil exports generated $6.1 billion in receipts in 2025, representing an 11.5 per cent increase from the $5.46 billion recorded in 2024.

In a report published on 24 February 2026, the council described the 2025 performance as the highest formally documented non-oil export value in Nigeria’s history.

The NEPC also reported that non-oil export volumes increased from 7.29 million metric tonnes in 2024 to 8.02 million metric tonnes in 2025, representing a 10 per cent increase.

The figures indicate that Nigeria earned more from exports outside the oil sector in 2025 than in any previous year covered by the council’s records.

However, the $6.1 billion figure refers to the value of non-oil export receipts, rather than government revenue collected from those exports. The distinction matters because export earnings accrue to exporters, while government revenue generally refers to taxes, duties and other public-sector receipts.

Infographic showing non-oil export

 

VERDICT

The claim that Nigeria recorded more than $6 billion in non-oil export earnings in 2025, the highest formally documented value in its history, is TRUE.

 

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Nurudeen Akewushola is a fact-checker with FactCheckHub. He has authored several fact checks which have contributed to the fight against information disorder. You can reach him via nyahaya@icirnigeria.org and @NurudeenAkewus1 via Twitter.

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