Is Nigeria, 4 other countries responsible for 80 per cent COVID-19 cases in West Africa?

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PROF Stanley Okolo, the Director-General of West African Health Organisation (WAHO) claimed that Nigeria and four other countries are responsible for over 80 per cent of COVID-19 cases in West Africa.

Prof Okolo made this claim while addressing Members of ECOWAS Parliament during the Second Extra-Ordinary Session, which was held via video conference.

The DG, while making a presentation to the Parliament, said that, “as at July 16, the five countries recorded 84,118 cases out of the 96,936 cases in the region.”

The five countries in question are Nigeria, Ghana, Cote d’Ivoire, Senegal and Guinea.

When The ICIR reached out to Prof Okolo for clarification on the claim, he directed the reporter to check the West African Health Organisation’s website and Twitter page for the organisation’s dashboard on confirmed coronavirus cases in West Africa.

Since Prof Okolo made this statement at an ECOWAS platform, The ICIR limited this fact-check to cover only the 15 West African countries that make up the ECOWAS.

PROF Stanley Okolo, the Director-General of West African Health Organisation (WAHO)

THE CLAIM

A media report published by Daily TrustVanguard and some other media outlets stated that Prof Stanley Okolo the Director-General of West African Health Organisation (WAHO) claimed that Nigeria and four other countries are responsible for over 80 per cent of COVID-19 cases in West Africa.

From the report the following claims were deduced:

CLAIM 1: That Nigeria and four other countries are responsible for over 80 per cent of COVID-19 cases in West Africa.

CLAIM 2: That as at July 16, the five countries recorded 84,118 cases out of the 96,936 cases in the region.

THE FINDINGS:

CLAIM 1

In a bid to verify the claims, The ICIR checked the World Health Organisation (WHO) Africa Regional Office to check the number of coronavirus cases recorded by each ECOWAS country as at July 16.

The data released by WHOAFRO is from the previous day.

“WHO only publishes verified information. Data may reflect difference in reporting methods, retrospective data consolidation and reporting delays” reads a caveat on the health organisation daily infographic updates.

To check Prof Okolo’s figures, The ICIR instead of using July 16 analysed data released on July 17 by WHO. This is because WHO clearly states that the data for July 17 were confirmed cases as at July 16.

These data showed that the five West African countries with the highest number of coronavirus cases account for 89,222 out of the total 102, 661 total coronavirus cases recorded in the region.

These five countries are Nigeria, Ghana, Cote d’Ivoire, Senegal and Guinea, the same Prof. Okolo made reference too.

The figures are Nigeria 34,854, Ghana 26,125, Côte d’Ivoire 13,403, Senegal  8,481,  and Guinea 6,359, totalling 89,222.

And the total for ECOWAS member states as at July 16 is 102,661– Benin 1,463, Burkina Faso 1,038, Cabo Verde 1,894, Côte d’Ivoire 13,403, Gambia 78, Ghana 26,125, Guinea 6,359,   Guinea-Bissau 1,927, Liberia 1,070, Mali 2,440,  Niger 1,102, Nigeria 34,854, Senegal  8,481,  Sierra Leone 1,678,  and  Togo 749.

To ascertain the claim that Nigeria and four other countries are responsible for over 80 per cent of COVID-19 cases in West Africa, the total of the five countries, 89,222 and the total of the West African countries, 102,661 were calculated and the result is approximately 87 per cent.

Data on COVID-19 Cases in Africa as of July 16. Infograph Credit: WHO Africa Region

CLAIM 2

From WHO data the five countries recorded  89,222 cases against the 84,118 stated by Prof Okolo and the total of  confirmed cases in the region is 102,661 against the 96,936 figure he gave. This is a difference of 5,104 and 5,725 respectively.

COVID-19 ECOWAS DAILY UPDATE for July 16, 2020 by West African Health Organisation.

In addition the WAHO for their daily update gave the total number of COVID-19 cases in the region to be 102,787  This figure is still more than Prof Okolo’s figure with more than 5,851.

THE VERDICT:

The claim that Nigeria and four other countries are responsible for over 80 per cent of COVID-19 cases in West Africa is TRUE.

The claim that  as at July 16, the five countries recorded 84,118 cases out of the 96,936 cases in the region is  FALSE.

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