FOLLOWING Nigeria’s 66th Independence Day anniversary on 1 October 2026, political figures and public officials issued statements assessing the nation’s progress. Among them was the presidential candidate of the Nigeria Democratic Congress, Peter Obi, who raised several points regarding the country’s socio-economic conditions.
Nigeria celebrates its Independence Day annually on 1 October to mark its independence from British colonial rule in 1960.
In this report, The FactCheckHub examines data-driven claims made by Obi using official statistics and other verifiable data sources.
READ: Nigeria at 66: Fact-checking Tinubu’s Independence Day economics
CLAIM 1
“Today, we stand before the world as a nation with the highest number of people living in poverty and hardship with over 140 million.”
FINDINGS
Assessing the claim requires distinguishing between the number of people living in poverty and the proportion of a country’s population living in poverty, as well as the different methods used to measure poverty.
Available international estimates support the view that Nigeria has one of the largest, absolute populations living in extreme poverty. Data displayed on the World Poverty Clock Dashboard, using an international extreme-poverty threshold, put the number of Nigerians living in extreme poverty at about 73.1 million, representing about 31% of the country’s population. This is higher in absolute terms than the corresponding figures for countries such as Afghanistan, Yemen, Venezuela, South Sudan, Angola and Zimbabwe.
However, a higher absolute number of people in poverty does not necessarily mean Nigeria has the highest poverty rate in the world. Countries with much smaller populations can have a greater proportion of their citizens living in extreme poverty. For example, the World Poverty Clock records substantially higher extreme-poverty rates for countries such as South Sudan, Afghanistan and Yemen than for Nigeria.
National data also show that poverty in Nigeria is widespread. Nigeria’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), in its 2022 Multidimensional Poverty Index report, estimated that 63% of Nigerians, or about 133 million people, were multidimensionally poor. The index measures deprivation across areas including education, health, living standards, work and shocks, rather than income alone. The NBS noted that 65% of multidimensionally poor Nigerians, about 86 million people, lived in the North, while nearly 47 million lived in the South.
Other poverty estimates
More recent analysis by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), published in September 2026, estimates that the share of Nigerians living below the national poverty line increased from 40.1% in 2018–2019 to 56.2% in 2022–2023, equivalent to about 126 million people. The report also estimates that 41.8% of Nigerians lived below the international $3-a-day poverty line in 2022.
Meanwhile, a 2026 Nigeria Economic Outlook report by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) projected that about 141 million Nigerians could be living in poverty in 2026. This figure is important because it is close to the number cited by Obi. However, it is a projection, not an official count of Nigerians currently living in poverty. It therefore cannot, on its own, establish that more than 140 million Nigerians are presently poor.
There is no 2026 NBS survey establishing that more than 140 million Nigerians are currently living in poverty. The latest NBS multidimensional poverty estimate remains the 2022 figure of 133 million people, while more recent UNCTAD analysis puts the number below the national poverty line at about 126 million in 2022–2023.
VERDICT
The claim that Nigeria has the highest number of people living in poverty and hardship with over 140 million is MOSTLY TRUE.
CLAIM 2
“Nigeria has over 18 million out-of-school children.”
FINDINGS
Findings by The FactCheckHub show that the claim is TRUE.
According to the United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF) 2024 report, it confirms that Nigeria has 10.2 million children of primary-school age and 8.1 million children and adolescents of secondary school age were out of school, a total of 18.3 million children.
VERDICT
The claim that Nigeria has over 18 million out of school children is TRUE. Official UNICEF figures place the total at 18.3 million children.
CLAIM 3
“Food organisation [are] saying that by the end of this year, 40 million Nigerians will face hunger.”
FINDINGS
Findings by The FactCheckHub show that the claim is FALSE. Reports found by The FactCheckHub published by global food and humanitarian agencies in 2026 do not state that 40 million Nigerians will face hunger by the end of the year.
According to the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), the October 2025 Cadre Harmonisé analysis projected that 34.7 million Nigerians would face Crisis or worse levels of acute food insecurity between June and August 2026. The estimate was based on an analysis led by the Nigerian government, with support from FAO, the World Food Programme (WFP), UNICEF and other partners. (Note: Acute food insecurity refers to a situation where a person’s inability to consume adequate food puts their life or livelihood in immediate danger).
A subsequent update put the figure slightly higher. The FAO’s Global Information and Early Warning System estimated that about 36.3 million people would face severe acute food insecurity in Nigeria between June and August 2026, including nearly 2.1 million people in Emergency (Cadre Harmonisé Phase 4) and about 10,300 people in Catastrophe (Phase 5) in Borno State.
Similarly, the WFP currently reports that about 35 million Nigerians are facing acute food insecurity, driven by conflict, climate shocks, displacement and disruptions to local food systems. The agency identifies the northeast, particularly Borno, Adamawa and Yobe states, as the epicentre of the crisis, with nearly 5.8 million people facing severe food insecurity in 2026. WFP also says that about 15,000 people in Borno are expected to face catastrophic levels of hunger.
The FAO-WFP Hunger Hotspots report, published in June 2026, similarly projected that about 34.8 million Nigerians would face high levels of acute food insecurity during the June–August 2026 lean season. It classified northeast Nigeria among the areas of highest concern because of the deteriorating food-security situation.
These estimates are significant but do not support the specific figure of 40 million. They also refer specifically to people experiencing acute food insecurity, which is a technical classification and should not be used interchangeably with the broader term hunger.
VERDICT
The claim that 40 million Nigerians will face hunger is FALSE.
CLAIM 4
“We recently lost 37 young people.”
FINDINGS
The ICIR and other media houses reported that 37 suspected miners, comprising minors and other young people, were confirmed dead hours after operatives of the Nigeria Security and Civil Defence Corps (NSCDC) command locked them up following their arrest at mining sites located at M.I. Wushishi/Lukoto axis of Minna between 15 and 16 September 2026.
Following their death Amnesty International Nigeria demanded an immediate probe into the deaths of the suspected illegal miners.
VERDICT
The claim that Nigeria recently lost 37 young people is TRUE. The incident was widely reported by national and international media houses.
CLAIM 5
“Nigeria life expectancy is 54 years as against a global average of 74.”
FINDINGS
The latest available World Bank data show that life expectancy at birth in Nigeria was 54.63 years in 2024. This is consistent with the claim that life expectancy in Nigeria is about 54 years.
Globally, however, the most recent World Health Organization (WHO) estimates put life expectancy at birth at 73.3 years in 2023, meaning the global average is closer to 73 years than 74 years. WHO’s latest global health estimates, released in October 2026, show that global life expectancy reached 73.3 years in 2023, compared with 73.4 years in 2019.
VERDICT
The claim that Nigeria’s life expectancy is 54 years compared to a global average of 74 is TRUE. Verified 2024 datasets from the World Bank confirm Nigeria’s life expectancy at birth hovers around 54 years.
CLAIM 6
“More than 35 million young Nigerians are unemployed or underemployed.”
FINDINGS
It is also important to distinguish unemployment from underemployment. Under the NBS definition, time-related underemployment refers to people who are employed but work fewer than 40 hours a week and are willing and available to work additional hours. Unemployed refers to people who are not employed, are actively seeking work and are available to start a job.
The latest available Nigeria Labour Force Survey (NLFS) data published by the NBS show that Nigeria’s unemployment rate was 5.3 per cent in the first quarter of 2024, while the rate of time-related underemployment was 10.6 per cent. The combined rate of unemployment and time-related underemployment, known as LU2, was 15.3 per cent.
Among young people aged 15 to 24, the unemployment rate stood at 8.4 per cent in Q1 2024, while 14.4 per cent of young people were classified as not in employment, education or training.
Meanwhile, the NBS cautions against simply comparing its newer labour-force figures with older unemployment statistics because the methodology of the NLFS changed substantially. The revised survey follows international standards and uses a different sampling and data-collection approach from previous labour-force surveys.
For example, an earlier NBS labour-force survey for Q2 2020 reported a youth unemployment rate of 34.9 per cent and an underemployment rate of 28.2 per cent among people aged 15–34. However, those figures were produced under the older methodology and should not be used to calculate a current 2026 population count.
ActionAid estimates 80 million youth are unemployed
There are also other estimates of youth unemployment in Nigeria. For instance, ActionAid Nigeria’s 2025 State of the Nigerian Youth report reportedly estimated that nearly 80 million young people, or 53 per cent of the country’s youth population, were unemployed. However, that figure is not an official NBS unemployment estimate and therefore cannot independently validate Obi’s specific claim of “over 35 million.”
While available evidence confirms that Nigeria faces substantial youth employment challenges, The FactCheckHub could not find reliable official data supporting the specific figure of more than 35 million young Nigerians who are unemployed or underemployed.
VERDICT
The claim that more than 35 million young Nigerians are unemployed or underemployed is UNPROVEN.
CLAIM 7
“Nigeria has one of the worst drug prevalence globally, today we have 14 per cent where the global average is 6 per cent.”
FINDINGS
The claim that Nigeria has a drug-use prevalence of about 14 per cent is supported by the findings of NBS and the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC).
According to the NBS report on drug use in Nigeria, produced from the 2018/19 National Survey on Drug Use and Health, an estimated 14.4 per cent of Nigerians aged 15 to 64 had used a psychoactive substance, excluding alcohol and tobacco, in the previous year. This translated to approximately 14.3 million people within that age group.
The survey remains the most comprehensive national estimate of drug use prevalence in Nigeria.
For comparison, the UNODC World Drug report 2026 estimates that about 6 per cent of the global population aged 15 to 64 used drugs in the past year. This places Nigeria’s reported prevalence at more than twice the global estimate.
VERDICT
The claim that Nigeria’s drug prevalence stands at 14 per cent compared to a global average of 6% is TRUE. Although this represents data from the most recent 2018 national survey.
Seasoned writer and literary curator, Zainab Abdulrasaq is a factchecker for The FactCheckHub in an effort to combat information disorder. She can be reached on IG @blackbookishgirl or zabdulrasaq@icirnigeria.org
