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Ezekwesili faults ICIR’s fact check on her out-of-school children’s claim

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Ezekwesili faults ICIR’s fact check on her out-of-school children’s claim

By Chikezie OMEJE.

OBY Ezekwesili, the presidential candidate of the Allied Congress Party of Nigeria (ACPN) has faulted The ICIR’s fact check on her claim that from the year 2000 till date, Nigeria has never reduced the number of out-of-school children except the period she was the minister of education between 2006 and 2007.

Ozioma Ubabukoh, the senior media consultant for OBY4PRESIDENT2019 wrote in response to the story on Friday that The ICIR needed to educate itself on the mathematics of numbers and rates.

“Omeje and the ICIR need to educate themselves on the mathematics of numbers and rates. The rate of OOSC is the number not enrolled in school as a percentage of the population of school age kids. Rates can drop even if the absolute numbers are increasing, depending on how many more children are entering into the school-age population,” Ubabukoh said.

He explained that: “all these data sources corroborate Ezekwesili’s facts on the progress made in just 10 months under her deliberate leadership, yet Omeje and his editors at ICIR were so bent on propagating a false narrative that they ignored all of that. Instead of analysing the accurate facts she gave about the NUMBERS of OOSC, they chose to fact-check her on the RATES of OOSC, something she did not reference at all in her entire speech

“Let us attempt a quick maths class for Omeje and the ICIR: If there are 6 out of 9 school-age children out of school in a small town this year, and next year the number of out of school children increases from 6 to 7 while the number of school-age children increases from 9 to 11, it means that the percentage/rate has dropped from about 68% to 64% even though the absolute numbers actually increased.

“Ezekwesili was clear about what she was measuring – the absolute NUMBERS – but Omeje and the ICIR were so bent on pushing an agenda that it blinded their eyes to her point. Again and again, the poor ICIR story kept repeating claims about “the percentage of out-of-school children,” and it left us all bewildered. How did the fact-checking shift from the first paragraph of the story which was talking about “numbers” to manufactured claims about percentages?

“A call from the campaign to the author of the piece explaining that there is a difference between percentages/rates and absolute numbers was not enough to convince the ICIR on the wrong-headedness of its claims. That is journalism at its worst and the ICIR needs to do better.

“For a start, we demand a retraction of that terrible story and an apology from the ICIR to the ACPN candidate. This must be given as much prominence as the shoddy story. Going forward, the platform needs to do a better job at its reporting and editing, especially in a high-stakes season like this when falsehoods can spread faster than facts.”

The ICIR’s position

It is true that Ezekwesili did not refer to percentage in her claim in the reduction of the number of out-of-school children but there is no reliable actual figures of out-of-school children in Nigeria. Basing her claim on actual figure is misleading. And this is why.

First, the UNESCO’s estimation started from 1999 to 2010. There is no record from 2011 to 2018. However, Ezekwesili’s claim is from the year 2000 to 2018. Therefore, how do we get figures from 2011 to 2018 to back up her claim?

Second, the UNESCO’s estimation was based on the Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey (MICS). MICS gives a percentage of out-of-school children based on the sample population. MICS is conducted at five years interval.

Third, UNESCO made an estimation that there were 10.5 million out-of-school children in Nigeria in 2010. The UNESCO’s estimation gave actual figures of out-of-school children from 1999 to 2010. However, in 2014, UNESCO reversed its earlier estimation. The new estimation now shows that Nigeria had 8.7 million out-of-school children in 2010.

Fourth, The ICIR could not access the models that the UNESCO Institute for Statistics used to arrive at the actual figures from 1999 to 2010.  The actual figure of out-of-school children can be gotten by extrapolating the percentage of out-of- school children from the estimated population of school-age children in the country. There are different statistical modelling which will give different figures of out-of-school children based on the percentage of out-of-school children.

Fifth, since the UNESCO’s estimation stopped at 2010, the official available records are the MICS of 2011 and 2016/2017.  The 2016/2017 MICS, the fifth of its kind in Nigeria, indicates that 27.2 per cent of 33, 647 sampled children were not attending any of preschool, primary and secondary school.

Sixth, no other credible organisations have made projections like UNESCO did between 1999 and 2010 to arrive at the actual figures from 2011 to 2018. Therefore, to examine the number of out-school-children, the most reliable means is the percentage of out-of-school children. The ICIR’s fact check clearly showed that Nigeria recorded the highest reduction in the percentage of out-of-school children in 2007 but it was not the only time the country did so. There was a steady decrease in the percentage of out-of-school children from the year 2000 until it shot up in 2008.

Seventh, it is misleading for Ezekwesili to use the estimation by UNESCO to claim achievement when the UNESCO’s estimation stopped in 2010. UNESCO even had to reverse its estimation once and arrived at different figures.  Based on the available official records, the most reliable means to show the reduction of out-of-school children is the percentage. With this percentage, different figures of out-of-school children can be arrived at based on certain statistical modelling.

Eight, The ICIR reached out to Ezekwesili to refer it to the records that back up her claim. She replied in text message the next day, asking for an email. The email was sent to her but she never sent any email even when she was later reminded after about five hours.

Ninth, if eventually Ezekwesili sends the records that back up her claim that “from the year 2000 till today – that is a period of 18 years – the only time that the number of out-of-school children in this country reduced was when I was education minister,” The ICIR will make corrections on the fact check.

FACT CHECK: Oby Ezekwesili’s claim on out-of-school children is inaccurate

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FACT CHECK: Oby Ezekwesili’s claim on out-of-school children is inaccurate

By Chikezie OMEJE.

OBY Ezekwesili, the presidential candidate of the Allied Congress Party of Nigeria (ACPN) says that from the year 2000 till date, Nigeria has never reduced the number of out-of-school children except the period she was the minister of education between 2006 and 2007.

The former vice president for the World Bank’s Africa region added that in the 10 months that she was the minister of education, the number of out-of-school children reduced by nearly 500,000.

“In just 10 months, we dropped the number by almost half a million, but the moment I left the ministry of education in 2007, the number immediately jacked up by almost two million. And it has never dropped again since then,” she wrote.

Ezekwesili, who was the minister of education between June 2006 and April 2007 during the administration of former President Olusegun Obasanjo, made these claims on Twitter on Tuesday.

Available data contradicts her claim

Based on the data from the UNESCO Institute for Statistics, it is true that Nigeria recorded the highest reduction in the percentage of out-of-school children in 2007 but it is false that it was the only time the country did so since the year 2000 as Ezekwesili claimed.

UNESCO Institute for Statistics is the official data agency of the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organisation (UNESCO).

Although UNESCO Institute for Statistics started recording the percentage of out-of-school children across countries since 1973, the data for Nigeria began to be kept from 1999 to 2010. Other countries have up to 2016 in the data-set by UNESCO Institute for Statistics.

Nigeria recorded a steady decrease in the percentage of out-of-school children from the year 2000 to 2007. The percentage, however, shot up from 28.4 per cent in 2007 to 35.1 per cent in 2008. But it reduced to 34 per cent in 2009 and 2010.

According to UNESCO Institute of Statistics, “children out of school are the percentage of primary-school-age children who are not enrolled in primary or secondary school. Children in the official primary age group that are in pre-primary education should be considered out of school.”

Which records were Ezekwesili referring to?

Ezekwesili did not answer her phone calls on Tuesday. A text message was subsequently sent to her, requesting that she should refer The ICIR to the “records” that back up her claim. She replied the text message on Wednesday morning and asked that an e-mail address be sent to her. An e-mail address was quickly sent to her but she has not sent any e-mail. After about five hours, she was reminded about sending the records that support her claim to the e-mail address. She has not responded.

The same request was tweeted at her, as she is very active on Twitter. She is yet to reply the tweet.

Questionable number of out-of-school children

On October 4, at the Northern Nigerian Traditional Rulers Conference on out-of-school children pre-conference in Abuja, Bello Kaigara, director of social mobilisation in the Universal Basic Education Commission (UBEC) claimed that the number of out-of-school children had risen from the usually quoted figure of 10.5 million to 13.2 million.

The ICIR fact-checked this claim by UBEC and found that the director based his claim on a non-existent data source.  His claim was based on Nigeria Demographic Health Survey (NDHS 2015) but there was never such a thing as NDHS 2015. The last NDHS was published in 2013. The survey is usually conducted at five years interval. Again, previous NDHS did not collect data on out-of-school children.

The figure of 10.5 million out-of-school children had been the most popular since the Unicef, the UN children’s agency, made the suggestion.

Unicef, however, told Africa Check that the number came from UNESCO’s Institute for Statistics database, using 2010 data. UNESCO said that it had based the 2010 figure on enrollment statistics from Nigeria’s education ministry. The age distribution was then estimated using data from a 2011 survey by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).

UNESCO later revised the 10.5 million to 8.7 million out-of-school children in 2014, because the UN Population Division had produced new population estimates for that year, UNESCO explained to Africa Check.

Moreover, the 2016/2017 Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey (MICS), the fifth of its kind in Nigeria, indicates that 27.2 per cent of 33, 647 sampled children were not attending any of preschool, primary and secondary school.

All in all, the number of out-of-school children in Nigeria is based on estimation. The actual figure of out-of-school children is often arrived at by extrapolating the percentage of out-of- school children from the estimated population of school-age children in the country.

Conclusion

Ezekwesili’s claim is inaccurate. She wrote that “from the year 2000 till today – that is a period of 18 years – the only time that the number of out-of-school children in this country reduced was when I was education minister”. Available official records do not support her claim.

The percentage of out-of-school children kept decreasing from 1999 to 2007, according to data from the UNESCO Institute for Statistics. Ezekwesili was the minister education between June 2006 and April 2007.

ICIR’s Chikezie Omeje wins Africa Check’s fact check award

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ICIR’s Chikezie Omeje wins Africa Check’s fact check award

CHIKEZIE Omeje, a Senior Investigative Reporter with the International Centre for Investigative Reporting (ICIR), has emerged winner of the 2018 fact check award which was organised by Africa Check.

Omeje’s entry, a fact-check report on whether Nigeria actually recorded a decline in preschool enrolment, was adjudged as the best entry from the 150 entries that were received from more than 20 countries across Africa.

Eleven journalists had been shortlisted for the award, including reporters from Premium Times and TheCable.

“In general, there was some really good work,’ said the head of the jury for the awards, Franz Kruger, a professor. “We were particularly struck by the student entries, which were very strong. In some cases, they were well ahead of entries from professional journalists.”

The award was received on Omeje’s behalf by Cletus Ukpong, a reporter with Premium Times, as he could not make it to South Africa where the award ceremony held, despite having met all requirements to be granted a visa by the South African Embassy in Nigeria.

Entries to the awards are judged on the following four criteria: “The significance for wider society of the claim investigated, how the claim was tested against the available evidence, how well the piece presented the evidence for and against the claim, and the impact that the publication had on public debate on the topic.”

 

Chikezie Omeje at the newsroom of San Francisco Chronicle, September 2018.

Omeje’s winning article was able to prove, using available evidence, that the claim by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) that there was a reduction in the enrolment of preschool children in Nigeria in 2016, was false.

On the contrary, as Omeje’s clarified in his report, it is more likely that there has been a steady increase in enrolment since 2001.

The NBS pulled down the misleading data from its website after Omeje’s fact-check report was published.

Jason Norwood-Young, from South Africa, was named the runner-up for the award with his story on whether residents of Cape Town were conserving water or not.

FACT CHECK: Did Fayose leave N170b or N120b debt profile in Ekiti?

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FACT CHECK: Did Fayose leave N170b or N120b debt profile in Ekiti?

By YEKEEN Akinwale.

ACCUSATIONS of debts profile in Ekiti State have become a vicious cycle between the incumbent governor, Kayode Fayemi and his predecessor, Ayodele Fayose.

They both have released many figures−huge and contradicting debt profiles that have left the public confused in their determined efforts to run down and malign each other. This has been since 2014 when Kayode Fayemi lost to Ayodele Fayose in a hotly contested election.

When  Fayose took over from Fayemi in October 2014; he accused the later of plunging the state into debts that outlived his administration.

Then, Fayose alleged that his predecessor left a debt profile of N45 billion and later came up with another figure of N86 billion which he said the state would only be able to exit in 22 years− 2036.

Now, the tide has turned and new debt profile has been released by the new government− it is both outrageous and controversial.

Claims and counter-claims

On Tuesday, October 16, 2018 when he was reading his inaugural speech at his swearing-in ceremony, Governor Kayode Fayemi said available evidences suggested that the state has been plunged into debts that amount to N170billion.

He vowed to probe his predecessor’s finances to ensure that the culture of prudence and financial propriety were brought to bear in the governance of the state.

“We will ensure that within 100 days from today, Ekiti Kete will know the true position of things,” Fayemi said, alleging that the loans that accrued to the N170billion debt was expended on white elephant projects.

He would later reverse himself that the debt profile was indeed N120billion and not N170billion as earlier claimed.

The newly appointed Chief Press Secretary to the governor, Olayinka Oyebode,  in a statement revealed that the state’s indebtedness is now N120 billion.

According to a copy of the debt profile Oyebode made available to The ICIR, which he said the government of Fayose prepared and sent to the DMO, the debt profile was N120billion as of June 2018.

He stressed that the figures could have also increased from June when it was prepared and submitted to the DMO.

“The document was sent prepared by the immediate past administration in June this year, so the indebtedness could have increased between June and now,” he said.

“The truth about the actual financial records of Ekiti State is now in the open going by the debt figures voluntarily submitted to statutory regulators, the Debt Management Office by the outgoing government of Governor Peter Ayodele Fayose in Ekiti State,” he said.

“Contrary to repeated claims by the Fayose Administration that Fayemi plunged the state into a debt burden that will not be paid off till 2036, it is now clear than the bond taken by the Fayemi administration is almost completely paid off with the first tranche of N20bn to be completed in October 2018 and the second tranche of N5bn bond due for payment in 2020.

 “The report revealed that the domestic debt of Ekiti State leapfrogged by N3bn within the last three months from N117bn to N120bn between March and June 2018 making Ekiti state debt to quadruple since Fayose assumed office as the Governor in Ekiti State from N31bn in 2014 to N120billion.

 “In a document forwarded to the DMO Office by the outgoing government, the components of the N120bn debt by the Fayose administration as at 31st June, 2018 include: Commercial Bank Loans of N2,087,788,065.28 received from Wema Bank in 2016, balance of N18,226,699,707.18 received from the FGN bond by his government in 2015, Budget Support Facility of N16,869,000,000.00 received in 2016 and 2017, Salary bail-out of N9,083,761,215.40 received in 2015, Commercial Bank Loan against funds due to Ekiti State in the FGN Excess Crude Account of N9,545,173,472.78 received by the current government in 2016, Contractors Arrears of N2,087,788,065.8, Pension and Gratuity Arrears of N22,162,602,017.49, Salaries arrears and other staff claims of N8,373651,226.50 and Judgment Debt of N95,048,963.35.

“The report also comprised the commercial agric loan of N163, 450,000.00 and N3, 484,469,345.51 outstanding balance of the Bond taken by the Fayemi administration.

But the immediate former governor refuted the N170billion debt profile claim by Fayemi arguing that the state’s debt profile left by him was not more than N60 billion. This rebuttal also negates the claim of the N120billion and the possibility of any veracity in the document sighted by the new government at the DMO.

Fayose who is currently in the custody of the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) for interrogation over allegation of fraud, responded through his media aide, Lere Olayinka, that the debt was either directly incurred during Fayemi’s first tenure or as a result of the loans restructuring done at the instance of the federal government and the Federal Economic Council.

He gave the breakdown as follows: Commercial Bank Loan, N2,087,788,065.28; CBN Grant for Water Project, N163,450,000; Excess Crude Account Backed Loan, N9,545,173,472.78; Bailout, N9,083,761,215.40; FGN Bonds, N18,226,699,707.18; State Bonds, N3,484,469,345.51 and Budget Support, N16,869,000,000.

On December 17, 2017, Daily Post, an online newspaper reported that the Debt Management Office (DMO) release a bulletin that showed that Fayose borrowed a total of N56billion since October 2014 when he came to power and December 2016.

The newspaper gave the breakdown, as follows, quoting the DMO bulletin which it claimed was available on the agency’s website.

“For 2015 Ekiti State borrowed loans include new loans of N24, 811, 574, 926.00; foreign loans stood at N2,709,786,898.98 while local bank loans was N22,101,788,065.28.

“In 2016, the summary of new loans was N31, 688, 638, 962.30 with foreign loans standing at N2, 705, 737, 050. 37 while local bank loans rose to N28, 982, 901, 911.93.

“The summary of total loans in two years, that is, between January 2015 and December 2016 is N56, 500, 213, 924.56.

“The summary of foreign loans is N5, 415, 523, 947.35 while summary of total bank loans incurred by the Fayose administration is N51, 084, 689, 977.21.”

It added that the figures excluded another N25billion applied for which was waiting approval.

The bulletin and the figures could not be traced by The ICIR on the DMO website.

The paper also claimed that Fayemi left a debt profile of N18billion in October 2014, but there was no record of the state’s debt profile as of that October 2014 on the website of DMO.

In a swift reaction, Fayose denied that the state under him in three years borrowed N56 billion.

“The only fresh loan taken by the government of Fayose was the N10 billion grant from the Excess Crude Account, which was released to all states for capital projects, N2.8 billion requested from Wema Bank to pay State Universal Basic Education Board (SUBEB) counterpart fund out of which N1 billion has been accessed and N600 million for MDGs counterpart fund, which has been repaid,” he said in a statement issued by Lere Olayinka.

Fayose accused Fayemi of orchestrating the report that was attributed to the DMO, but insisted that he inherited N86billion debt when he came to power in October 2014.  This claim was also not available on DMO’s website.

But DMO figures show that Ekiti was only indebted to the tune of N38billion −both domestic and foreign debts as of December 2014, two months after the exit of Fayemi as the state governor.

Actual figures from Debt Management Office

Despite all these discrepancies in figures being churned out by the two parties to the public domain, figures of Ekiti State Debt profile contained on the official website of the Debt Management Office (DMO) may have laid the controversy to rest.

Ekiti state debt profile between December 2014 and June 2018

As of December 2014, two months after Fayose took over from Fayemi as the Governor of the state, Ekiti State domestic debt profile stood at N30.5billion while its foreign debt was $46.5million. This amounted to N38billion when the foreign debt was converted to naira at the exchange rate of N168 per dollar.

Therefore, the debt profile of Ekiti State, both local and foreign when Fayose took over from his predecessor in 2014 was N38.26billion and neither N45 billion nor N86 billion that he said the state would exit in 2036. It was also not N18billion claimed by the Daily Post.

It must be noted that debt profile of each state on DMO website was calculated as of December of each year except for 2018 that has not ended and which the agency has released the figure up till June.

Therefore, in 2015, Ekiti State domestic debt profile was N52.6billion while the foreign debt was $55million. It was N85billion in 2016 while the foreign debt stood at $56.9million, while in 2017; the figure was N117.5billion and $78.1million respectively for both domestic and foreign debt. And as of June 2018, the figure released by the DMO as domestic debt of Ekiti was N117.7billion while the foreign debt was $98million.

The DMO, on its website, did not provide details of how these debts were incurred.

The state’s debt profile as of June 2018

Figures released by the DMO as of June 2018 as debt profile of Ekiti State revealed that its external debt rose from $46,452,932.15 to $97,994,770.66, with a difference of $51,541,838.51 from December 2014. That’s N15,771,802,584.06 at the current exchange rate.

Domestic debt under Fayose rose from N30,460,634,167.79 to N117,724,274,041.26. Thus, the state’s domestic debt leaped by N87,163,669,873.47 in four years.

Therefore, it is safe to conclude that at the exchange rate of N306 per dollar, the current debt profile of Ekiti State, both domestic and foreign as of June 2108, according to DMO statistics is N147,612,679,092.56.

And until there is another official release by the agency, this is what could be seen as official debt profile of the state and not N170billion or N120billion.

World Economic Forum misleads Nigerians on country’s ranking

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World Economic Forum misleads Nigerians on country’s ranking

By Chikezie OMEJE.

NIGERIA’S progress in the latest Global Competitiveness Index (GCI) released by the World Economic Forum (WEF) is confusing. 

The media, including The ICIR, reported on Thursday that Nigeria moved up 10 places in the 2018 Global Competitiveness Report.  Nigeria was ranked 125 last year and 115 this year. Therefore, the media report was right that Nigeria moved up 10 places in the ranking which indicates that the country has made progress in global competitiveness.

However, the 2018 Report showed that Nigeria fell three places to 115 and was ranked 112 in the 2017 edition.

2018 GC Report says Nigeria was ranked 112 in 2017 edition

This is where the confusion comes in. Contrary to the 2018 Report, the Global Competitiveness Report 2017 ranked Nigeria 125 out of 137 countries.  But the 2018 Report indicated that Nigeria ranked 112 out of 135 countries in 2017.

It seems there is a misrepresentation of 2017 ranking because the 2018 Report indicated that 135 countries were ranked in 2017 whereas 137 countries were actually ranked as contained in the 2017 Report.

Reno Omokri, a former aide to former President Goodluck Jonathan, capitalised on this confusion to tweet that the media report that Nigeria made progress in GCI was false and alleged that the media report was sponsored by President Muhammadu Buhari government.

Based on the 2018 GCI, Omokri was right that Nigeria slipped by three places and did not make progress.

Therefore, both claims by the media and Omokri were right based on information from the WEF.

The ICIR sent an e-mail to WEF for clarification on Nigeria’s ranking but has not received feedback at the time of this report.

A tweet was also sent to the WEF Twitter handle but there was no reply by the time of this report.

WEF said it used a brand new methodology in this year’s ranking “to fully capture the dynamics of the global economy in the Fourth Industrial Revolution.”

According to the report “the GCI 4.0 framework is built around 12 main drivers of productivity. These pillars are: Institutions, Infrastructure; Technological readiness; Macroeconomic context; Health; Education and skills; Product market; Labour market; Financial system; Market size; Business dynamism; and Innovation. They comprise 98 individual indicators.”

CONCLUSION

Regardless of the new methodology used in the 2018 Report, it does not change the fact that Nigeria was ranked 125 in the 2017 GCI and now ranks 115 in the latest ranking. For the 2018 Report to say that Nigeria was ranked 112 in the 2017 edition is misleading.

FACT CHECK: Has Buhari appointed a ‘Chief Economic Adviser’? Yes and no

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FACT CHECK: Has Buhari appointed a ‘Chief Economic Adviser’? Yes and no

By ‘Kunle ADEBAJO.

WITH the 2019 presidential election gradually drawing closer, claims are more frequently made in attempts to discredit one political party, candidate or the other. One of such claims was aired on Wednesday during an interview session with Osita Chidoka on Channels TV. 

In criticising President Muhammadu Buhari’s economic policies, the former aviation minister and one of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) founding members said on Sunrise Daily that the federal government has no chief economic adviser.

“The fact remains that as we go to the 2019 election,” he said towards the end of the interview, “what we are going to be confronting is the reality that a government has taken over from the PDP … and today we have more crises than we’ve ever had in the country before.”

“We have a situation in the economy where the government has no economic adviser,” he continued. “We do not know what the philosophy of the economy that this government has … The president doesn’t have an economic adviser, a chief economic adviser.”

When the host observed that the government does have an economic team, Chidoka insisted there is a difference in functions.

“Economic team is the individual ministers,” he explained. “It was started by the PDP to generate key ministers and bring them together into a team. But the president needs an adviser. He has media advisers, almost four of them. He has political advisers. He needs an economic adviser.”

“He needs somebody to articulate: Is this going to be a state-run economy or is it going to be a private sector economy? If this is going to be a private sector economy, what are we going to do to enable the private sector to thrive in Nigeria?”

Shortly after the programme, Chidoka again took to Twitter to stand by his earlier assertion, receiving support from a number of other users. He said the federal government has not appointed a “Chief Economic Adviser”. What we rather have is a “Special Adviser to the President on Economic Matters in the Office of the Vice-President”.

The Special Adviser on Economic Matters himself, Adeyemi Dipeolu, has appeared to suggest the same line of argument. When The ICIR recently queried him as to how he spent money allocated, in 2017, for evident-based research studies on the economy, he replied that the project (for the Office of the Chief Economic Adviser) is not under his office.

But is there a substantial difference between these two offices, and has President Buhari appointed a Chief Economic Adviser?

What the official release says

Before Buhari’s ascent to the presidency, it was customary for presidents to appoint a Chief Economic Adviser. The Office of the Chief Economic Adviser to the President (OCEAP) has been in existence since the return to democratic rule in 1999 when former president Olusegun Obasanjo appointed Philip Asiodu in the capacity.

But under the present administration, the closest appointment to this is that of Dipeolu as “Special Adviser to the President (Economic Matters), Office of the Vice President” — as written on the official release by the Secretary to the Government of the Federation. He was as appointed to this role on November 9, 2015, and was officially sworn in in the August, 2016.

The administration also appointed 11 Special Assistants and Senior Special Assistants (note: not advisers) on various economically related issues such as on the Economic Recovery and Growth Plan (ERGP).

However, of all appointees, only Dipeolu has been noted as a member of the Economic Management Team alongside Vice President Yemi Osinbajo, Minister of Budget and Planning, Minister of Finance, Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria among others. This was a role previously played by the “Chief Economic Adviser”.

What the budgets say

Under previous administrations, a portion of the national budget has always been dedicated to the “Office of the Chief Economic Adviser to the President”, with the budget code “OCEAP” followed by seven figures.

When President Buhari took over, this tradition was maintained. The budgets from 2015 to 2018 have the same section under the “Presidency” with the same office name — though in 2018 the budget code was changed to ERGP as with all other departments, agencies and offices.

Also noteworthy is the fact that records show that not only has money been constantly allocated to this office, money has also been released and withdrawn in the name of Chief Economic Adviser.

For instance, in 2017, N60 million was allocated to OCEAP for capital projects, and records from the office of the Accountant-General reveal that, of this amount, N35 million was cashbacked in the first quarter.

Presidential spokesperson confirms Dipeolu as CEA

Garba Shehu, Senior Special Assistant to the President on Media and Publicity, has also confirmed to The ICIR that indeed Adeyemi Dipeolu is serving as the nation’s Chief Economic Adviser.

“…We would like to confirm the person presently acting in the capacity as Chief Economic Adviser,” The ICIR asked Shehu in a text message.

“Dr Adeyemi Dipeolu,” he responded.

Conclusion

While President Buhari has appointed  Dipeolu to act in the capacity of Special Adviser to the President on Economic Matters, it is also true that the president has not conferred the title of “Chief Economic Adviser” on any individual who should have authority over the  OCEAP budget.

FACT CHECK: Did Okowa raise Delta State’s IGR from 30 to N51 billion?

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FACT CHECK: Did Okowa raise Delta State’s IGR from 30 to N51 billion?

By ‘Kunle ADEBAJO.

IFEANYI Okowa, Governor of Delta State, said the Internally Generated Revenue (IGR) of his state was as low as N30 billion in 2016 but, thanks to his administration, this has been raised to N51 billion annually.

He passed this remark on Friday at the 14th All Nigeria Editors Conference in Asaba, the state capital, and added that the nearly doubling of IGR was made possible through expanding the scope of tax collection and making it more effective.

“We were able to collect taxes from the market women not just as tax but also as premium for the state health insurance scheme, which they benefit from by paying their taxes,” he said.

Another factor that led to the success recorded, he explained, was the privatisation and effective management of the Asaba Airport, which has been upgraded to enable it accommodate the landing of larger aircraft.

According to him: “We got technical advice to privatise or commercialise the airport and we have published for investors to bid for it.”

The ICIR has, however, discovered the governor’s claim to be exaggerated and misleading, when set against available data.

Belied by the NBS

Data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), the government agency which produces official statistics on behalf of the federation, show that Okowa’s claims are not accurate.

Source: BudgIT‘s State of States, 2018 edition

While the internally generated revenue for 2017 is stated to be N51.9 billion and that of 2018 is said to average N4.3 billion monthly (N51.6 billion when stretched for the entire year), it is not true that the IGR of 2016, a year after Okowa was sworn in, was as low as N30 billion.

According to the NBS, Delta State had internally generated a revenue of N44.1 billion in the 2016 calendar year. In other words, the year on year growth (that is percentage increase) is only 17.7% and not 73% — the result when the governor’s understated figured is used.

There is, therefore, a difference of 55.3% between the figures as claimed by the governor and the authentic figures. Also, data compiled by BudgIT, a civic organisation that simplifies the budget and matters of public spending, have shown that it is not the first time Delta State’s IGR will be shooting up beyond N50 billion.

Under Emmanuel Uduaghan, who was governor between 2007 and 2015, the IGR had risen to a record high of N50.3 billion, as a result of various reforms, before dropping in 2014 to N42.8 billion.

Chike Ogeah, the Commissioner for Information under Uduaghan, had said in 2013 that the state’s internally generated revenue was only N12.2 billion in 2007, but rose to N37.4 billion in 2011 and then N45.5 billion in 2012.

Are there 13.2 million out-of-school children in Nigeria as claimed by UBEC?

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Are there 13.2 million out-of-school children in Nigeria as claimed by UBEC?

By Damilola OJETUNDE.

LAST week, the Executive Secretary, Universal Basic Education Commission (UBEC), Ahmed Boboyi, stated that the population of out-of-school children in Nigeria has risen from 10.5 million to 13.2 million.

The Executive Secretary, who was represented by the Director of Social Mobilisation, Bello Kaigara, made the statement on Thursday, 4 October, at the Northern Nigerian Traditional Rulers Conference on Out-of-School Children pre-conference briefing in Abuja. Subsequently, the statement made the headlines in several media platforms.

Boboyi quoted the Nigeria Demographic Health Survey (NDHS), which, he said, was conducted in 2015 by the United Nations Children Fund (UNICEF) and the Nigerian government. He claimed the result has not been officially released.

THE CLAIM

Nigeria out-of-school population has risen from 10.5 million to 13.2 million, according to NDHS conducted in 2015.

VERIFICATION OF CLAIM

To verify the claim, The ICIR contacted the spokesperson of UBEC, Ossom Ossom to make a clarification about whether or not NDHS was conducted in 2015.  He responded by sending an email address that the request should be forwarded to. He also said the email would be attended to by the Executive Secretary, but as at the time of writing this report, the message has not been acknowledged.

OUT-OF-SCHOOL CHILDREN DEFINED

According to the United Nations, out-of-school children are children who are yet to be enrolled in any formal education excluding pre-primary education. The age range for out-of-school children between six and eleven years.

It is important to note that each of the children may have had varying levels of education. Some of them may have attended school in the past (pre-primary education) but dropped out, some will attend school in the future and some may never go to school.

DENIED BY UNICEF

In a  phone interview with The ICIR, Geoffrey Njoku, a Communication Specialist with UNICEF Nigeria, said there is nothing like ‘NDHS 2015’. He said the organisation never conducted any survey of such.

“The last report on NDHS was that of 2013 and the next edition of the report should be published this year”, Njoku said.

The NDHS is a national sample survey that provides up-to-date information on demographic characteristics of the respondents and conducted at an interval of five years.

According to the last report, UNICEF was not actively involved in compiling the report. The role UNICEF played was only to provide technical support on height and weight measurement of women and children.

OUT-OF-SCHOOL FIGURE REVISED TO 8.7 MILLION

Doune Porter, former Chief of Communications, UNICEF Nigeria, told Africa Check that the figure of 10.5 million came from UNESCO’s Institute for Statistics database, using data from 2010. The Institute for Statistics is the official data agency of the United Nation’s Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organisation (UNESCO), providing internationally-comparable data on education.

UNESCO said the 2010 figure on enrollment statistics originated from Nigeria’s education ministry. The age distribution was then estimated using data from a 2011 survey by the National Bureau of Statistics.

However, in 2014, the data agency revised the 2010 out-of-school figure for Nigeria from 10.5 million to 8.7 million. This was because the UN population division had produced new population estimates for that year.

NATIONAL BUREAU OF STATISTICS

The ICIR, in a tweet-post to the Statistician General of the Federation, Yemi Kale, when asked if the NDHS report was published in 2015. He said the NDHS is driven by the National Population Commission and could not comment on it.

He, however, suggested the Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey (MICS5), 2016/2017 conducted by the NBS and UNICEF was published in early 2018.

The survey report shows that a total of 9.1 million children are out-of-school in Nigeria, a figure which is even higher than the figure quoted in the UIS 2016 report. In the NBS survey report, the out-of-school children are defined as the number of out-of-school children of primary school age who are not attending school and those attending preschool.

This differs from the UN definition which excludes the children attending preschool. By reviewing the figures to reflect the UN definition, this means that 7.2 million children of primary school age are out-of-school in Nigeria. Even though the figure is smaller than the UIS official report, it is still higher than all other countries in the world.

NO COMMENT FROM POPULATION COMMISSION

The National Population Commission is the agency charged with the responsibility of collecting, collating and analysing demographic data, including the publication of the NDHS report.

The ICIR could not contact the Commission through email and phone calls.  The email address of the Commission, which is displayed on its website, seems not be functioning as messages sent was undelivered.

CONCLUSION

It is certain that the National Demographic and Health Survey was neither conducted nor its report published in 2015 as claimed by the Executive Secretary of the Universal Basic Education Commission.

Though the argument that lack of quality data on Nigeria’s population has adversely affected the figures, may not be groundless. Available data from both UNESCO and the official statistical authority of Nigeria have not shown that the number of out-of-school children has increased from 10.5 million to 13.2 million.

Therefore, the claim by UBEC Executive Secretary is MISLEADING.

Osun Decides 2018: Exposing the fallacies, exaggerations, outright lies in governorship debate

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Osun Decides 2018: Exposing the fallacies, exaggerations, outright lies in governorship debate

IN the evening of Sunday, six days to the Osun State gubernatorial election, four of the prominent aspirants gathered in Osogbo to demonstrate preparedness for office at the Channels TV debate.

For over an hour, Fatai Akinbade of the African Democratic Congress (ADC), Moshood Adeoti of the Action Democratic Party (ADP), Iyiola Omisore of the Social Democratic Party (SDP) and Gboyega Oyetola of the All Progressives Congress (APC) all engaged each other in a war of words. Ademola Adeleke of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) was absent.

Even though emotional statements and campaign clichés filled the debate atmosphere, occasional errors were committed nonetheless. In this fact-check, The ICIR scrutinises the suspicious claims by three of the candidates.

Gboyega Oyetola

GBOYEGA OYETOLA, APC

Claim: Osun state debt portfolio is about 141 billion

In reacting to claims from Omisore regarding Osun state’s debt profile, Oyetola said what he knew was that the state’s debt from Sukuk bonds and commercial loans is about N141 billion. He said the state will be free from liability on the bond by 2020. He added, in response to whether Osun’s debts are sustainable, that Nigeria’s debt to GDP ratio on the average is about 40 per cent, and “ours is still less than 6 per cent”.

Verdict: Partly true

According to 2017 figures from the National Bureau Statistics stating both external and domestic debt stocks of the various states of the federation, Osun State’s total debt is N167.7 billion. This comprises a domestic debt of N138.2 billion and external debt of $96.6 million.

Calculations by The ICIR confirm Oyetola’s claim that Osun State’s debt to GDP ratio is less than 6 per cent. 2012 estimates by Renaissance Capital give the state’s GDP as $9.4 billion. With this figure, its debt to GDP ratio is therefore 5.8 per cent. It is also true payment of the Sukuk bond is due by 2020.

However, it is not the case that the average debt to GDP ratio in Nigeria is about 40 per cent. According to a report of the National Bureau of Statistics, debts of the various states, that is sub-national debt, in relation to GDP rose from 2.4 per cent in 2014 to 4 per cent in 2016 — only ten per cent of Oyetola’s claim.

Claim: UNESCO supports Osun’s new 4-5-3-4 educational classification.

When Oyetola was asked if he would be regularising the school system which Osun State introduced  in 2011, he replied: “Even UNESCO [United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization] acknowledged the fact that it is the best way to go. And that is the truth… It has not changed the curriculum anyway.”

Verdict: Misleading

After an educational summit organised in 2011, the old primary/secondary classification system was renamed and arranged into elementary, middle and high schools. Pupils in elementary school are those from grades, that is primary, one to four. Those in middle school are students from grade five to nine, that is primary five and six, as well as JSS one to three. Finally, high school,  under the new classification, is for SS one to three, which is grade ten to twelve in Osun State.

Grace Titi Laoye-Tomori, Osun State Deputy Governor and Commissioner for Education, has also said the new system is patterned after UNESCO standards. This claim is however misleading.

The 2011 UNESCO International Standard Classification of Education does not expressly classify schools according to elementary, middle and high, and does not recommend a 5-4-3-4 arrangement. Rather, it classifies schools according to pre-primary education, primary education, lower secondary education, upper secondary education and post-secondary non-tertiary education.

The document further allows for flexibility in local labelling. “Programmes classified at ISCED level 1 may be referred to in many ways, for example: primary education, elementary education or basic education,” it states. “For international comparability purposes the term ‘primary education’ is used to label ISCED level 1.”

Claim: There is a reasonable number of women in present Osun cabinet

In the concluding session of the debate, the moderator asked candidates about their position on female participation in governance and gender equality. While addressing the subject, Oyetola said: “Even the existing cabinet is pro-[women]. We have reasonable number of women in the cabinet.” But is this so?

Verdict: Misleading

A check through the list of cabinet members in the incumbent Osun State government reveals that, out of a total of 45, there are only seven cabinet members who are female: Deputy Governor, Commissioner For Human Resource & Capacity Building, Commissioner for Empowerment & Youth Engagement, Commissioner for Federal Matters, Commissioner for Women and Children Affairs, Special Adviser on Higher Education, Bursary & Scholarships, and Special Adviser on Culture and Tourism.

This amounts to only 15.5 per cent — a long way from absolute gender parity or even the 30 per cent affirmative action proposed by the National Gender Policy.

Iyiola Omisore

IYIOLA OMISORE, SDP

Claim: “IGR is about 7.7 per cent, debt outgoing is about 36.04 per cent… So there is a net deficit of 29 per cent ab initio [debt versus IGR]. Our budget of 2015 has 41 per cent deficit from the beginning: 2016 has 51 per cent deficit, 2017 has 62 per cent deficit, and 2018 has 82 per cent deficit.”

Verdict: An understatement

During his remarks, the SDP candidate often reeled off figures without properly putting each one into perspective. Part of his many statistics, which he said he arrived at “having done my own work”, are the budget deficits from 2015 to 2018. He said this to buttress his position of Osun State government’s fiscal indiscipline.

Available data, however, shows that the budget deficits between 2015 and 2017 are much more than what Omisore painted. The proposed budgets for 2015, 2016 and 2017 are N197.08 billion, 137.9 billion and 138.2 billion respectively, while the total revenue for those years were N28.3 billion, N14.8 billion, and N16.9 billion. Using these figures, the budget deficits are therefore 85.6 per cent, 89.2 per cent, and 87.8 per cent — not 41 per cent, 51 per cent, and 62 per cent.

Claim: There are no Opon Imo tablets in Osun State schools

Omisore described the famous Opon Imo (tablet of knowledge) project of the Aregbesola-led Osun State government as a scam, and blamed it for the state’s indebtedness. Not only that, he also claimed “there is no Opon Imo anywhere in this state”. After Oyetola denied his remarks, saying the tablets are available and functional, he said there are no tablets in circulation.

“They brought only a few hundreds and launched,” he said. “I have students that live with me, and I’ve not seen any tablet with them. So I don’t know where they are; maybe they are hidden in government office.”

Verdict: False

The Opon Imo project was introduced in 2013 by Rauf Aregbesola, Osun State governor, with the plan of giving out 150,000 units of e-learning tablets to senior secondary school students in order to improve learning and ICT literacy.

One reason that may explain why Omisore has not seen the tablet with students around him is that the state government now distributes it only to students in their final-year and then retrieves it after their final examination. Evidence abounds of the annual distribution and use of the tablets.

Claim: In 2010, Osun ranked fourth in secondary school performance.

Criticising the construction of “mega schools” in the state, Omisore remarked: “By 2010, Osun was in the fourth position. They built mega schools, they went to 29th position.” He  said the mega schools lack basic facilities such as science laboratories, and are not improving the quality of education in Osun.

Verdict: Unlikely

While it is true that records show Osun was ranked 29 in the state ranking of 2018 released by the West African Examination Council, there is no data online for as far back as 2010.

Reported WAEC performance data of the state covering ten years, however, shows an improvement of 113 per cent in the performance of students. According to the data, while about 7000 students passed with at least five credits in subjects including English and Mathematics in 2010, this figure shot up to about 17,000 in 2016. This was also confirmed, in June, by the state commissioner for education.

Osun state WAEC performance between 2006 and 2016

Claim: Nigeria signed treaty to appoint women into 33 per cent of political offices

During the last segment of the debate which addressed plans on minorities, Omisore was asked about his position on women in governance. In his response, he said Nigeria signed to the “Protocol of China”, which stipulates 33 per cent political positions for women.

“And as a law-abiding, my minimum will be that 33 per cent. Women will be very happy in the government coming.”

Following the senator’s response, Oyetola gave the figure, according to “the Beijing Convention”, as 35 per cent, and said that was the maximum. Adeoti jumped on the wagon and said he will ensure not less than 35 per cent of political appointments are reserved for women “because it is a resolution of an international body, the United Nations”. Akinbade also made a similar vow of at least 35 per cent .

But is there any such UN resolution proposing an affirmative action of 35 per cent?

Verdict: False

The Beijing Declaration of 1995 does not actually state 35 per cent as the minimum extent of female participation in governance. It merely encourages the equal participation of both genders.

Article 13 states: “Women’s empowerment and their full participation on the basis of equality in all spheres of society, including participation in the decision-making process and access to power, are fundamental for the achievement of equality, development and peace.”

The African Union Protocol on Human and People’s Rights on the Rights of Women in Africa (the Maputo Protocol) also makes no particular demands.

Nigeria’s National Gender Policy, however, stipulates that 30 per cent of political posts should be reserved for women.

Fatai Akinbade

FATAI AKINBADE, ADC

Claim: My business is already profitable

Verdict: No available evidence.

There is no available evidence showing that Akinbade’s company, the Owu Crown Hotel, has broken even and is profitable.  However, in June, the hotel was among 15 companies sealed off by the Oyo State Board of Internal Revenue for tax violations.

According to the board, the step had to be taken as a result of the companies’ “failure to pay outstanding professional/business registration/renewal fees”.

FACT CHECK: Presidency’s claim about no- allocation for Hilux vehicles in the 2016/2017 budget is false

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FACT CHECK: Presidency’s claim about no- allocation for Hilux vehicles in the 2016/2017 budget is false

By Ajibola AMZAT.

THE Presidency has denied there was any allocation for the purchase of Hilux vehicles in 2016 and 2017 appropriated budgets, but The  ICIR’s check has shown that the claim is false. 

Responding to the allegations that Abba Kyari,  the chief of staff to President Muhammadu Buhari collected a 29 million Naira bribe for awarding a contract, the Senior Special Assistant to the President on Media and Publicity, Garba Shehu on Saturday, declared the allegation was fiction.

Recall that Bako Waziri Kyari, a  man who identified himself as a nephew of Kyari has alleged that Buhari’s CoS  with the aid of Sani Ado, whom he claimed worked with the Bureau of Public Procurement, collected N29.9m from him in order to help him get a contract for the supply of Hilux vehicles.

But in a statement released on Saturday by the presidency, Shehu said there was no request for the supply of Hilux vehicles in the 2016 and 2017 budget, insisting there was no way Kyari could have taken bribe to assist anyone get a contract that did not exist.

He stated instead that political detractors and the media are at work to scandalise the president ahead of 2019 general election.

“With a slew of crucial elections ahead, some politicians and their media agents appear to be working together to build pressure on the Buhari administration by wielding non-existent scandals against it.

“We equally note that the supply of 15 Hilux vehicles for the Presidency was an unlikely contract to have been awarded, as it did not exist anywhere in the 2016 and 2017 budgets

“Checking the appropriation for 2016 and 2017, that request is not even there. How could Abba Kyari have asked for money to award a contract that did not exist anywhere at all?”

However, the ICIR’s check shows that Mr. Shehu’s claim is untrue.

Indeed, the presidency has allocation for Hilux in the 2016 and 2017 Appropriation Act, and expenditure on Hilux vehicles appeared twice in the 2016 and 2017 budgets.

According to the 2016 budget, N189, 175,000 was allocated to the State House for the “purchase  of tyres for Mercedes Benz, bulletproof/plain, Toyota cars, CCU, Platforms trucks, land cruiser jeep, Hilux, Peugeot 607, Peugeot 607, BMW trucks, ambulances, utility, operational vehicles etc.” The expenditure, coded as “SH06015193″ in the budget is labelled as on-going.

A screenshot of the 2016 appropriated budget

Also in 2017, a sum of N53,500,000 was allocated to the National Institute for Policy and Strategic Studies(NIPSS), Kuru for the provision of utility vehicle (Hilux pickup). The National institute is a parastatal under the Presidency and supervised directly by the Office of the Vice President.

There is another allocation of N94,575,000 to the State House which also included the purchase of Hilux vehicles and other vehicles.  The list include “tyres for bullet prof vehicles, plain Toyota cars, CCU vehicles, Platform trucks, Land Cruiser, Prado jeeps, Hillux, Peugeot 607, ambulances and other utility and operational vehicles. In the budget table, each expenditure is coded “NKXRN14734419” and “SHIUF71730037” respectfully.

A screenshot of the 2017 appropriated budget

It rather though curious that the allocation for Hilux and other vehicles are lumped together in the budgets.

The ICIR called Mr Shehu on Sunday for clarification. He maintained there is no place “15 Hilux” was stated exactly in the budget. “It is understandable if they don’t quote a figure. But to say 15 Hilux…that is incorrect.”

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