Please note that the FactCheckHub has not obtained any right from the authors or copyright owners of all third-party contents from embedded links and shall incur no liability in this regard.
Please note that the FactCheckHub has not obtained any right from the authors or copyright owners of all third-party contents from embedded links and shall incur no liability in this regard.
Please note that the FactCheckHub has not obtained any right from the authors or copyright owners of all third-party contents from embedded links and shall incur no liability in this regard.
Please note that the FactCheckHub has not obtained any right from the authors or copyright owners of all third-party contents from embedded links and shall incur no liability in this regard.
A Facebook user, Noonooagu has posted a quote attributed to former Nigerian president Goodluck Jonathan, claiming that he said he would have annulled the 2015 presidential election but chose not to because “history would not be kind” to him.
“BREAKING: I would have annulled the 2015 election and nothing would’ve happened. But history would not be kind to me.
— EX President, Goodluck Ebele Jonathan”
The post features a photograph of Jonathan and has attracted over 300 reposts and more than comments as of 8 October 2026.
CLAIM
Former Nigerian president Goodluck Jonathan said he would have annulled the 2015 presidential election but refrained from doing so because history would not be kind to him.
FINDINGS
Findings by The FactCheckHub show that the claim is FALSE.
There is no credible evidence that Jonathan made the statement in the viral post. Searches of reports about his reflections on the 2015 election found no credible source quoting him as saying that he would have “annulled” the election or that “nothing would’ve happened” if he had done so.
However, the viral quote appears to have been derived from comments Jonathan made while reflecting on the conduct of the 2015 election.
In February 2025, Jonathan spoke at the YIAGA Africa Reflection Conference on Democratic Elections in West Africa where he recalled problems with the biometric card readers used during the election.
Reports of his remarks show that Jonathan said the card reader had rejected him, his wife and his mother during the 2015 election. Pulse Nigeria reported that he described the experience while discussing electoral reforms.
A later report published in August 2025 quoted Jonathan as saying:
“In 2015, the INEC card reader rejected many voters in the South, including me and my wife, causing frustration. Meanwhile, in the North, instructions allowed everyone to vote without accreditation. So you really see something not quite right. I could have stopped the election.”
The remark that Jonathan “could have stopped the election” appears to be the basis for the claim circulating on social media. Naija News reported the comments in August 2025.
However, “I could have stopped the election” is different from saying “I would have annulled the 2015 election and nothing would’ve happened.” The latter wording is not supported by the available evidence.
Media reports also documented similar difficulties faced by Jonathan during the 2015 election. On 28 March 2015, Channels Television reported that several INEC card readers failed to accredit Jonathan and his wife at their polling unit in Otuoke, Bayelsa State, southern Nigeria. Jonathan subsequently urged Nigerians to remain patient, expressing confidence that INEC would resolve the issues.
Jonathan also ultimately conceded defeat to Muhammadu Buhari. In 2016, The Guardian reported that Jonathan said he conceded because he believed no Nigerian life was worth his political ambition.
Therefore, while Jonathan has said that he could have stopped the 2015 election because of problems surrounding the card-reader system, the viral post changes that remark into a claim that he would have annulled the election and that “nothing would’ve happened.”
A review of Jonathan’s comments in credible media reports and his social media accounts did not show that he made such remarks after the election.
VERDICT
The claim that former Nigerian president Goodluck Jonathan said he “would have annulled the 2015 election and nothing would’ve happened” is FALSE. Jonathan did say in a later reflection that he “could have stopped the election” because of problems with INEC’s card readers, but there is no credible evidence that he made the viral statement about annulling the election or that “history would not be kind” to him.
A VIRAL video circulating on social media claims to show a Nigerian police officer who has refused to retire or vacate his office despite being officially retired by the police command.
The post was shared on X by a verified user, @MR__sulaiman2, with the caption:
“In this video: A Nigerian police officer has refused to retire or leave his office, even after the command officially retired him.”
As of 7 October 2026, the post has garnered over 256,000 views, 3500 likes, and more than 800 reposts.
Video shows a Nigerian police officer refusing to leave his office after being retired by the police command.
screenshot of the viral post.
FINDINGS
Findings by The FactCheckHub show that the claim is MISLEADING.
The video shared online is old and recirculated without proper context.
A reverse image search of keyframes extracted from the video conducted by The FactCheckHub revealed that the footage has been online since March 2023.
Findings showed that the clip was previously published on Facebook by All Facts News on 18 March 2023.
Furthermore, additional reporting published by The Eagle Online on 19 March 2023, confirmed that the confrontation involved junior officers instructing a retired Assistant Commissioner of Police (ACP) to vacate the premises following his statutory retirement.
While the video depicts an authentic incident, presenting it as a recent event is misleading as it took place over three years ago.
VERDICT
The claim that the video shows a recent incident of a Nigerian police officer refusing to vacate his office after retirement is MISLEADING. Findings show that the video is old footage from March 2023 being recirculated out of context.
Adeyeye made the statement during an interview with BusinessDay TV published on 5 October 2026, while discussing the misuse of pesticides and the need for farmers to understand instructions on agricultural chemicals.
“We are ignorant in this country. We are very ignorant, we don’t read, we don’t understand,” Adeyeye said.
“From farm to fork, there are many organisations involved. There are many agencies involved. NAFDAC mandate is for processed or semi processed foods.
“We have about 56% illiteracy… if it is a literate country they would read. Sometimes, our people don’t understand.”
CLAIM
Nigeria has an illiteracy rate of about 56 per cent.
FINDINGS
Findings by The FactCheckHub show that the claim is FALSE.
The General Household Survey-Panel Wave 5, conducted by the National Bureau of Statistics in 2023 and 2024, found that 60.9 per cent of Nigerians aged five years and above were literate. The survey defines literacy as the ability to read and write in English or another language at a level adequate for communication and comprehension.
Based on the NBS figure, about 39.1 per cent of Nigerians in the surveyed population were not literate, considerably lower than the 56 per cent claimed by Adeyeye.
The NBS data also shows that literacy varies considerably across the country. The national literacy rate was 60.9 per cent, it was considerably higher in urban areas, at 78.5 per cent, compared with 54 per cent in rural areas.
The latest figures, therefore, do not support a national illiteracy rate of 56 per cent.
Similarly, the World Bank defines adult literacy as the percentage of people aged 15 and above who can both read and write with understanding a short, simple statement about their everyday life. The indicator is sourced from the UNESCO Institute for Statistics.
The data shows that 70 per cent of Nigerians aged 15 and above were literate as of 2024. This corresponds to an adult illiteracy rate of about 30 per cent, significantly lower than the 56 per cent figure cited by Adeyeye.
The FactCheckHub could not find a publicly available national literacy dataset that supports the 56 per cent figure given by Adeyeye.
VERDICT
The claim that 56 per cent of Nigerians are illiterate is FALSE. Credible statistics shows that the figure is lower.
A video showing Seyi Tinubu, son of Nigerian president Bola Tinubu, standing inside a hall at an event has resurfaced on social media with a claim that it shows Nigerian rapper Eedris Abdulkareem publicly confronting him over his father’s performance in office and the country’s worsening security situation.
The video was shared by an X user, @NigeriaTheBest with a caption that reads:
“This is Eedris Abdulkarim at a symposium, Boldly addressing Sheyi Tinubu that his Father Bola Tinubu is the worst president Nigeria ever had. What a golden address !!! Men dey o !!!”
The video has generated over 7,000 reposts and more than 28,000 likes as of 6 October 2026.
The video shows Seyi Tinubu standing inside a hall while a voice, identified as that of Eedris Abdulkareem, criticises president Tinubu and addresses Seyi over his previous comments about his father.
CLAIM
A video shows Eedris Abdulkareem publicly confronting Seyi Tinubu and telling him that his father, president Bola Tinubu, is the worst president Nigeria has ever had.
Screenshot of the viral post
FINDINGS
Findings by The FactCheckHub show that the claim is MISLEADING.
The video combines footage of Seyi Tinubu at one event with audio from a separate occasion in which Eedris Abdulkareem criticised president Tinubu and addressed comments previously made by Seyi.
The voice heard in the viral video belongs to Eedris Abdulkareem. Abdulkareem made the remarks during a separate event in Edo State in April 2026, where he addressed an audience. Seyi was not at the event.
During his remarks, Abdulkareem criticised Tinubu’s handling of insecurity and referred to Seyi’s earlier description of his father as the best president.
He said:
“Nine months ago, Seyi Tinubu enter national TV say, ‘My papa is the best president.’ Seyi, if your papa is the best president, no be you go tell us. Na we go tell you. Seyi, your papa is the worst president. Seyi, tell your papa country hard. Seyi, tell your papa people dey die.”
The remarks came after Seyi had described his father as “the greatest president in the history of Nigeria” during a political event in Adamawa State in March 2025. Abdulkareem later criticised the statement and released his song Tell Your Papa in response. Premium Times reported the exchange in April 2025.
The original video of Abdulkareem’s remarks therefore does not show Seyi in the audience or indicate that the musician was speaking directly to him.
The audio from Abdulkareem’s separate performance was subsequently superimposed on the footage of Seyi Tinubu, creating the impression that the musician was confronting him in person.
Therefore, while Eedris Abdulkareem did make remarks criticising Tinubu and addressing Seyi, the viral video does not show the two men at the same event or a face-to-face confrontation between them.
VERDICT
The claim that the video shows Eedris Abdulkareem publicly confronting Seyi Tinubu is MISLEADING. Abdulkareem did make the remarks heard in the video, but Seyi Tinubu was not present at the event.
The NAF 931 aircraft that crashed in Ondo State on 5 October had spent almost four years at a specialist aircraft maintenance facility in Germany, where its right engine and other components were removed.
This is according to aviation records reviewed by The ICIR.
The aircraft, an ATR 42-500MP Surveyor with manufacturer serial number 800, arrived at Rheinland Air Service (RAS) in Mönchengladbach, Germany, for maintenance in January 2021. According to Military Aviation Spotting Germany, the aircraft was at the facility on January 25, 2021, while AirHistory later reported that it remained there with several components, including its right engine, removed.
Rheinland Air Service was an established maintenance provider for ATR aircraft. ATR, the manufacturer of the aircraft, selected RAS as a member of its MRO network, with its Mönchengladbach facility specialising in heavy maintenance of ATR 42 and ATR 72 aircraft.
JetPhotos photographed the aircraft at the same facility in June 2023.
NAF 931 at Mönchengladbach – EDLN Germany, Source: Jetphotos
The aircraft was still at Mönchengladbach on 20 September 2024, according to an aviation photograph, meaning it had remained in Germany for more than three years. Military Africa reported that NAF 931 finally returned to Nigeria in late December 2024.
The prolonged maintenance period is now an important part of the aircraft’s history, although it does not by itself establish that NAF 931 had a mechanical defect or that its maintenance contributed to the crash. The precise nature of the work carried out in Germany, the components replaced or overhauled, and the reason for the unusually long stay have not been confirmed by the authorities. The spokesperson of the Nigerian Air Force did not respond to calls or messages to his line on 6 October, when The ICIR sought his reaction to these findings.
NAF 931 was not new to overseas maintenance. In September 2013, the aircraft was recorded arriving at Edinburgh Airport in Scotland for maintenance at the Air Contractors facility. AirHistory identified it as one of the two ATR-42s operated by the Nigerian Air Force in the maritime surveillance role. Additional photographs show the aircraft at Edinburgh in November that year, indicating that it remained there for at least several weeks.
Its international history goes back to its first year in service. According to Planespotters, NAF 931 was delivered to the Nigerian Air Force in March 2010. Its delivery flight took it from Turin-Caselle in Italy to Tamanrasset in Algeria on 30 March 2010.
Just months after entering service, the aircraft was already flying internationally. NAF 931 was photographed at the Farnborough International Airshow in the United Kingdom in July 2010 by AirHistory and Airfighters.
The aircraft was part of a two-aircraft acquisition by the Nigerian Air Force from Italian aerospace manufacturer Alenia Aeronautica. NAF 930 was delivered in December 2009, followed by NAF 931 in March 2010, under a $73 million contract signed in 2007 during the administration of former President Olusegun Obasanjo. The contract included the aircraft, crew training and logistics support.
Both ATR-42s were configured for intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance operations, including maritime patrol, and can perform search-and-rescue and limited transport duties.
The sister aircraft, NAF 930, also underwent major maintenance at the RAS facility in Germany. It was sent there in September 2019 after completing about 5,000 hours of operations, including missions supporting military operations against Boko Haram, and returned to Nigeria in July 2020. NAF 931, however, remained in Germany for substantially longer.
That difference raises questions that are now relevant to the investigation into its recent crash. Ondo State Governor Lucky Aiyedatiwa had said a possible technical or mechanical fault might have caused the aircraft to lose communication with the control tower shortly after taking off from Benin for Lagos.
Speaking on Channels Television’s Politics Today on 5 October, hours after the crash, Aiyedatiwa said he did not believe bad weather was the likely cause, arguing that the aircraft would probably not have taken off if weather conditions had been poor at the time. He said the aircraft could have developed a fault while in the air, leading to the loss of communication.
The Aviation Minister, Festus Keyamo, also said air traffic controllers were unable to contact the aircraft by radio before information later confirmed it had crashed near the Naval Base in Igbokoda.
He said preliminary information indicated that 25 passengers and seven crew members were on board, while the wreckage had been located and search-and-rescue operations were ongoing.
Earlier, the NAF had confirmed that the aircraft was an ATR-42 and said it was on a routine mission from Benin to Lagos when the accident occurred.
The ICIR reported that the aircraft had five crew members and 20 passengers on board
FOLLOWING Nigeria’s 66th Independence Day anniversary on 1 October 2026, political figures and public officials issued statements assessing the nation’s progress. Among them was the presidential candidate of the Nigeria Democratic Congress,Peter Obi, who raised several points regarding the country’s socio-economic conditions.
Nigeria celebrates its Independence Day annually on 1 October to mark its independence from British colonial rule in 1960.
In this report, The FactCheckHub examines data-driven claims made by Obi using official statistics and other verifiable data sources.
“Today, we stand before the world as a nation with the highest number of people living in poverty and hardship with over 140 million.”
FINDINGS
Assessing the claim requires distinguishing between the number of people living in poverty and the proportion of a country’s population living in poverty, as well as the different methods used to measure poverty.
Available international estimates support the view that Nigeria has one of the largest, absolute populations living in extreme poverty. Data displayed on the World Poverty Clock Dashboard, using an international extreme-poverty threshold, put the number of Nigerians living in extreme poverty at about 73.1 million, representing about 31% of the country’s population. This is higher in absolute terms than the corresponding figures for countries such as Afghanistan, Yemen, Venezuela, South Sudan, Angola and Zimbabwe.
However, a higher absolute number of people in poverty does not necessarily mean Nigeria has the highest poverty rate in the world. Countries with much smaller populations can have a greater proportion of their citizens living in extreme poverty. For example, the World Poverty Clock records substantially higher extreme-poverty rates for countries such as South Sudan, Afghanistan and Yemen than for Nigeria.
National data also show that poverty in Nigeria is widespread. Nigeria’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), in its 2022 Multidimensional Poverty Index report, estimated that 63% of Nigerians, or about 133 million people, were multidimensionally poor. The index measures deprivation across areas including education, health, living standards, work and shocks, rather than income alone. The NBS noted that 65% of multidimensionally poor Nigerians, about 86 million people, lived in the North, while nearly 47 million lived in the South.
map of Nigeria showing percentage of Nigerians living in multidimensional poverty by state
Other poverty estimates
More recent analysis by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), published in September 2026, estimates that the share of Nigerians living below the national poverty line increased from 40.1% in 2018–2019 to 56.2% in 2022–2023, equivalent to about 126 million people. The report also estimates that 41.8% of Nigerians lived below the international $3-a-day poverty line in 2022.
Meanwhile, a 2026 Nigeria Economic Outlook report by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) projected that about 141 million Nigerians could be living in poverty in 2026. This figure is important because it is close to the number cited by Obi. However, it is a projection, not an official count of Nigerians currently living in poverty. It therefore cannot, on its own, establish that more than 140 million Nigerians are presently poor.
There is no 2026 NBS survey establishing that more than 140 million Nigerians are currently living in poverty. The latest NBS multidimensional poverty estimate remains the 2022 figure of 133 million people, while more recent UNCTAD analysis puts the number below the national poverty line at about 126 million in 2022–2023.
VERDICT
The claim that Nigeria has the highest number of people living in poverty and hardship with over 140 million is MOSTLYTRUE.
CLAIM 2
“Nigeria has over 18 million out-of-school children.”
FINDINGS
Findings by The FactCheckHub show that the claim is TRUE.
According to the United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF) 2024 report, it confirms that Nigeria has 10.2 million children of primary-school age and 8.1 million children and adolescents of secondary school age were out of school, a total of 18.3 million children.
VERDICT
The claim that Nigeria has over 18 million out of school children is TRUE. Official UNICEF figures place the total at 18.3 million children.
CLAIM 3
“Food organisation [are] saying that by the end of this year, 40 million Nigerians will face hunger.”
FINDINGS
Findings by The FactCheckHub show that the claim is FALSE. Reports found by The FactCheckHub published by global food and humanitarian agencies in 2026 do not state that 40 million Nigerians will face hunger by the end of the year.
According to the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), the October 2025 Cadre Harmonisé analysis projected that 34.7 million Nigerians would face Crisis or worse levels of acute food insecurity between June and August 2026. The estimate was based on an analysis led by the Nigerian government, with support from FAO, the World Food Programme (WFP), UNICEF and other partners. (Note: Acute food insecurity refers to a situation where a person’s inability to consume adequate food puts their life or livelihood in immediate danger).
A subsequent update put the figure slightly higher. The FAO’s Global Information and Early Warning System estimated that about 36.3 million people would face severe acute food insecurity in Nigeria between June and August 2026, including nearly 2.1 million people in Emergency (Cadre Harmonisé Phase 4) and about 10,300 people in Catastrophe (Phase 5) in Borno State.
Similarly, the WFP currently reports that about 35 million Nigerians are facing acute food insecurity, driven by conflict, climate shocks, displacement and disruptions to local food systems. The agency identifies the northeast, particularly Borno, Adamawa and Yobe states, as the epicentre of the crisis, with nearly 5.8 million people facing severe food insecurity in 2026. WFP also says that about 15,000 people in Borno are expected to face catastrophic levels of hunger.
The FAO-WFP Hunger Hotspots report, published in June 2026, similarly projected that about 34.8 million Nigerians would face high levels of acute food insecurity during the June–August 2026 lean season. It classified northeast Nigeria among the areas of highest concern because of the deteriorating food-security situation.
These estimates are significant but do not support the specific figure of 40 million. They also refer specifically to people experiencing acute food insecurity, which is a technical classification and should not be used interchangeably with the broader term hunger.
VERDICT
The claim that 40 million Nigerians will face hunger is FALSE.
CLAIM 4
“We recently lost 37 young people.”
FINDINGS
The ICIR and other media houses reported that 37 suspected miners, comprising minors and other young people, were confirmed dead hours after operatives of the Nigeria Security and Civil Defence Corps (NSCDC) command locked them up following their arrest at mining sites located at M.I. Wushishi/Lukoto axis of Minna between 15 and 16 September 2026.
Following their death Amnesty International Nigeria demanded an immediate probe into the deaths of the suspected illegal miners.
VERDICT
The claim that Nigeria recently lost 37 young people is TRUE. The incident was widely reported by national and international media houses.
CLAIM 5
“Nigeria life expectancy is 54 years as against a global average of 74.”
FINDINGS
The latest available World Bank data show that life expectancy at birth in Nigeria was 54.63 years in 2024. This is consistent with the claim that life expectancy in Nigeria is about 54 years.
Globally, however, the most recent World Health Organization (WHO) estimates put life expectancy at birth at 73.3 years in 2023, meaning the global average is closer to 73 years than 74 years. WHO’s latest global health estimates, released in October 2026, show that global life expectancy reached 73.3 years in 2023, compared with 73.4 years in 2019.
VERDICT
The claim that Nigeria’s life expectancy is 54 years compared to a global average of 74 is TRUE. Verified 2024 datasets from the World Bank confirm Nigeria’s life expectancy at birth hovers around 54 years.
CLAIM 6
“More than 35 million young Nigerians are unemployed or underemployed.”
FINDINGS
It is also important to distinguish unemployment from underemployment. Under the NBS definition, time-related underemployment refers to people who are employed but work fewer than 40 hours a week and are willing and available to work additional hours. Unemployed refers to people who are not employed, are actively seeking work and are available to start a job.
The latest available Nigeria Labour Force Survey (NLFS) data published by the NBS show that Nigeria’s unemployment rate was 5.3 per cent in the first quarter of 2024, while the rate of time-related underemployment was 10.6 per cent. The combined rate of unemployment and time-related underemployment, known as LU2, was 15.3 per cent.
Among young people aged 15 to 24, the unemployment rate stood at 8.4 per cent in Q1 2024, while 14.4 per cent of young people were classified as not in employment, education or training.
Meanwhile, the NBS cautions against simply comparing its newer labour-force figures with older unemployment statistics because the methodology of the NLFS changed substantially. The revised survey follows international standards and uses a different sampling and data-collection approach from previous labour-force surveys.
For example, an earlier NBS labour-force survey for Q2 2020 reported a youth unemployment rate of 34.9 per cent and an underemployment rate of 28.2 per cent among people aged 15–34. However, those figures were produced under the older methodology and should not be used to calculate a current 2026 population count.
ActionAid estimates 80 million youth are unemployed
There are also other estimates of youth unemployment in Nigeria. For instance, ActionAid Nigeria’s 2025 State of the Nigerian Youth report reportedly estimated that nearly 80 million young people, or 53 per cent of the country’s youth population, were unemployed. However, that figure is not an official NBS unemployment estimate and therefore cannot independently validate Obi’s specific claim of “over 35 million.”
While available evidence confirms that Nigeria faces substantial youth employment challenges, The FactCheckHub could not find reliable official data supporting the specific figure of more than 35 million young Nigerians who are unemployed or underemployed.
VERDICT
The claim that more than 35 million young Nigerians are unemployed or underemployed is UNPROVEN.
CLAIM 7
“Nigeria has one of the worst drug prevalence globally, today we have 14 per cent where the global average is 6 per cent.”
FINDINGS
The claim that Nigeria has a drug-use prevalence of about 14 per cent is supported by the findings of NBS and the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC).
According to the NBS report on drug use in Nigeria, produced from the 2018/19 National Survey on Drug Use and Health, an estimated 14.4 per cent of Nigerians aged 15 to 64 had used a psychoactive substance, excluding alcohol and tobacco, in the previous year. This translated to approximately 14.3 million people within that age group.
The survey remains the most comprehensive national estimate of drug use prevalence in Nigeria.
For comparison, the UNODC World Drug report 2026 estimates that about 6 per cent of the global population aged 15 to 64 used drugs in the past year. This places Nigeria’s reported prevalence at more than twice the global estimate.
VERDICT
The claim that Nigeria’s drug prevalence stands at 14 per cent compared to a global average of 6% is TRUE. Although this represents data from the most recent 2018 national survey.
On 1 October 2026, former Nigerian vice president and presidential candidate of the African Democratic Congress (ADC), Atiku Abubakar, delivered an Independence Day address at the party’s headquarters in Abuja.
In his address, Atiku made several claims about Nigeria’s economy, insecurity, governance and other developments under president Bola Tinubu’s administration.
He made the claims while assessing the state of the country and the performance of the current administration, ahead of the 2027 general elections.
In this report, The FactCheckHub examines some of the verifiable claims made by Atiku, comparing them with official records, statutory reports, government data and other credible sources.
CLAIM 1
“N30,000 minimum wage could buy about 118 litres of petrol in April 2023.”
FINDINGS
Findings by The FactCheckHub show that the claim is TRUE.
The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reported that the average retail price of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS), commonly known as petrol, was N254.06 per litre in April 2023.
At that price, a N30,000 minimum wage could buy approximately 118 litres of petrol. The calculation is N30,000 ÷ N254.06 = 118.08 litres
This means Atiku’s estimate of about 118 litres is consistent with the NBS data for April 2023.
VERDICT
The claim that the N30,000 minimum wage could buy 118 litres of petrol in May 2023 is TRUE. At the NBS average price of N254.06 per litre, the minimum wage could indeed purchase about 118 litres.
CLAIM 2
“…While a N70,000 minimum wage buys just 50 litres today.”
FINDINGS
The NBS has since recorded a substantial increase in the average retail price of petrol. The latest available NBS Premium Motor Spirit (Petrol) Price Watch, available as at the date of publication, covers May 2026 and puts the national average price of petrol at ₦1,596.25 per litre.
At the latest NBS national average price, a ₦70,000 minimum wage would buy approximately 44 litres of petrol, not 50 litres. The calculation is ₦70,000 ÷ ₦1,596.25 = 43.85 litres.
The NBS figure is a national average based on prices collected from outlets across the 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory. Actual pump prices can therefore differ by location and filling station.
The continued rise in petrol prices has reduced the amount of petrol that can be bought with the minimum wage.
Petrol prices vs minimum wage
VERDICT
The claim that N70,000 minimum wage buys just 50 litres today is PARTLY TRUE. At N1,596.25 per litre, N70,000 would buy about 44 litres, meaning the claim overstates the purchasing power of the current minimum wage by approximately 6 litres, or 14 per cent.
CLAIM 3
“Nigeria’s public debt stood at N166.79 trillion at the end of June 2026.”
FINDINGS
Findings by The FactCheckHub show that the claim is TRUE.
The Debt Management Office (DMO) published Nigeria’s total public debt position as of 30 June 2026, on 25 September 2026. According to the report, Nigeria’s total public debt stood at N166.79 trillion at the end of June 2026.
The figure represents the combined debt of the federal government, the 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory.
The DMO data show that domestic debt accounted for N91.59 trillion, representing 54.91 per cent of the total public debt, while external debt stood at N75.20 trillion, or 45.09 per cent.
In dollar terms, Nigeria’s total public debt stood at $120.93 billion, comprising $66.41 billion in domestic debt and $54.52 billion in external debt. The DMO noted that the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) official exchange rate of N1,379.1842 to US$1 as of 30 June 2026 was used to convert the external debt component into naira.
The June 2026 figure represented an increase from N159.35 trillion recorded at the end of March 2026. It also marked an increase from N152.40 trillion in June 2025, according to figures reported from the DMO data.
The chart below shows Nigeria’s public debt in June each year from 2023 to 2026.
Nigeria’s public debt
VERDICT
The claim is TRUE, the DMO’s official debt statement confirms that Nigeria’s total public debt was ₦166.79 trillion as of 30 June 2026.
CLAIM 4
“…While the government was discussing another $1.5 billion in World Bank loans.”
FINDINGS
The Punch reported on 28 September 2026 that the federal government had opened discussions with the World Bank for three proposed loans totalling $1.5 billion. The proposed facilities were each valued at $500 million and were intended to support climate resilience, social protection and early childhood development.
One of the proposed facilities is an additional $500 million for the Agro-Climatic Resilience in Semi-Arid Landscapes (ACReSAL) project. The World Bank was expected to consider the proposed additional financing on 29 October 2026. If approved, the additional financing would increase ACReSAL’s total financing from $700 million to $1.2 billion. The Punch reported that the proposed facility was at the preparation stage and had been scheduled for consideration by the World Bank’s board on 29 October 2026. The details are also reported by Nairametrics.
Another proposed $500 million facility is for the Household Prosperity and Empowerment-Social Protection Project (HOPE-SP). The project was still at an earlier stage of preparation, with its technical design review expected on 30 October 2026, and an estimated World Bank approval date of 16 March 2027. The Punch reported these timelines based on documents from the World Bank. TheCable also reported that the project was scheduled for technical design review on 30 October 2026, with board approval expected on 16 March 2027.
The third proposed $500 million facility is for the Nigeria Early Childhood Development programme, with an estimated approval date of 15 March 2027. Its technical design review is also scheduled for 30 October 2026. The proposed programme would cover all 36 states and the FCT and seek to improve access to an integrated package of services, including health, nutrition, early learning, childcare, water and sanitation, for children aged zero to five. The Punch reported these details from the World Bank documents. TheCable also reported the proposed programme’s scope and approval timeline.
VERDICT
The claim is TRUE, reports based on World Bank documents confirm that the federal government was in discussions for three proposed World Bank facilities worth a combined $1.5 billion.
CLAIM 5
“The 2025 budget has been extended until 31 December 2026, while the 2026 budget also exists.
FINDINGS
Findings by The FactCheckHub show that the claim is TRUE.
On 30 September 2026, president Bola Tinubu signed the Appropriation (Amendment) (No. 4) Bill, 2025 into law, extending the implementation period of the 2025 budget from 30 September to 31 December 2026.
According to the State House announcement, the extension followed the passage of the amendment by both the senate and the house of representatives on 29 September 2026.
The presidency said the extension would give ministries, departments and agencies (MDAs) additional time to complete ongoing capital projects and ensure that funds already appropriated are fully utilised.
The latest extension is the fourth amendment to the 2025 budget’s implementation period. The extension means that some projects and spending authorised under the 2025 Appropriation Act can continue to be implemented until the end of 2026, rather than ending on 30 September 2026.
At the same time, Nigeria also has a 2026 budget. president Tinubu assented to the 2026 Appropriation Bill in April 2026, bringing the 2026 Appropriation Act into force from 1 April 2026. The 2026 budget provides for total expenditure of N68.32 trillion.
The existence of the 2026 budget is also confirmed by the Budget Office of the Federation, which published the details of the 2026 Appropriation Bill and lists the 2026 Appropriation Act among its budget documents.
Therefore, the two statements in the claim refer to two separate appropriation frameworks operating during the same calendar year. The 2026 Appropriation Act governs the 2026 budget, while the latest amendment allows the implementation of outstanding components of the 2025 budget to continue until 31 December 2026.
VERDICT
The claim is TRUE. The official records support both parts of the claim. The president signed the latest amendment to the 2025 Appropriation Act on 30 September 2026, extending its implementation period to 31 December 2026. Separately, the 2026 Appropriation Act is already in force, having received presidential assent in April 2026.
CLAIM 6
“More than 10 million Nigerians received N75,000 each in cash transfers, amounting to at least ₦750 billion.”
FINDINGS
Findings by The FactCheckHub show that the claim is TRUE.
On 26 September 2026, the national chairman of the All Progressives Congress (APC), Nentawe Yilwatda, said that more than 10 million Nigerians had received ₦75,000 each through the Federal Government’s conditional cash transfer programme.
Yilwatda made the statement while speaking to journalists after a three-day retreat of the APC national executive council in Maiduguri, Borno State. He said the beneficiaries were poor and vulnerable Nigerians who, in many cases, did not have mobile phones or access to social media.
If 10 million beneficiaries each received ₦75,000, the total would amount to ₦750 billion. This arithmetic is correct.
VERDICT
The claim that more than 10 million Nigerians benefited from the programme is TRUE.
CLAIM 7
“Some tertiary institutions raised their fees by more than 400 per cent.”
FINDINGS
Findings by The FactCheckHub show that the claim is TRUE.
There is evidence that some Nigerian tertiary institutions substantially increased tuition and other institutional charges. In October 2025, The Guardian reported that a document from the Nigerian Education Loan Fund (NELFUND) identified fee increases ranging from 20 per cent to 521 per cent at several tertiary institutions.
The institutions identified in the report included the University of Ilesha, Ekiti State University, University of Medical Sciences, Ondo, Edo State University, Ladoke Akintola University of Technology (LAUTECH), and David Umahi Federal University of Health Sciences.
According to the report, the increases covered tuition and other institutional charges, with the magnitude varying across institutions and programmes. The highest increase identified in the NELFUND document was 521 per cent, which exceeds the 400 per cent threshold in the claim.
A 400 per cent increase means that a fee becomes five times its original amount. For example, if a fee was ₦100,000 and increased by 400 per cent, the new fee would be ₦500,000. A 521 per cent increase would take the same ₦100,000 fee to ₦621,000.
The NELFUND figures therefore provide evidence that the claim is not referring merely to modest increases in school charges. At least one institution recorded in the document had an increase exceeding five times the previous charge.
The Guardian reported that NELFUND expressed concern about the scale of some of the increases and their potential effect on students and the student loan scheme. The fund also raised concerns about institutions increasing fees after students had already applied for or received loans based on earlier fee levels.
NELFUND subsequently continued to caution tertiary institutions against arbitrary increases in tuition and other institutional charges. In June 2026, Channels Television reported that the fund warned institutions against arbitrary fee increases and the withholding of tuition refunds.
VERDICT
The claim that some institutions increased their fees by more than 400 per cent is TRUE.
CLAIM 8
“Five young Nigerians were arrested in Borno after wearing T-shirts bearing the inscription ‘Tinubu Must Go’.”
FINDINGS
Findings by The FactCheckHub show that the claim is TRUE.
On 30 September 2026, Premium Times reported that police in Borno State had charged five men to court after arresting them over T-shirts bearing the inscription “Tinubu Must Go.”
The men were accused of criminal conspiracy, inciting disturbance, disturbing public peace and thuggery, according to the report. The allegations were not proof of guilt; they were charges that would have to be determined through legal proceedings.
The report supports Atiku’s claim that five men were arrested in connection with the T-shirts. However, whether they should be released, and whether their detention or prosecution violated their rights, are legal questions requiring examination of the court proceedings and the applicable law.
VERDICT
The claim that five men were arrested and charged in Borno over “Tinubu Must Go” T-shirts is TRUE.
IN his Independence Day address on Thursday, 1 October 2026, Nigerian president Bola Tinubu highlighted what he described as improvements in the country’s economic performance, including growth in gross domestic product (GDP), declining inflation, reduced oil theft and record non-oil export earnings.
Nigeria celebrates its Independence Day every 1 October to mark its independence from British colonial rule in 1960. The annual address provides the president an opportunity to reflect on the country’s progress, highlight government achievements and outline its economic and security priorities.
In this report, The FactCheckHub examines four economic claims made by Tinubu using official statistics and other verifiable sources.
CLAIM 1
Tinubu says, “Our economy has grown by over 4 per cent this year.”
FINDINGS
Findings by The FactCheckHub show that the claim is TRUE.
The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) estimated that Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 4.43 per cent year-on-year in the second quarter of 2026, according to its latest GDP report published in August 2026. This represents an improvement from the 3.89 per cent growth recorded in the first quarter of 2026.
The second-quarter growth means that economic activity expanded at a faster pace than in the preceding quarter. It also represents an increase from the 3.13 per cent growth recorded in the second quarter of 2025, indicating that the pace of economic expansion strengthened year-on-year.
According to the NBS quarterly GDP series, the 4.43 per cent growth recorded in Q2 2026 was the highest quarterly growth rate since Q3 2024, when the economy grew by 3.86 per cent.
Infographic showing GDP growth.
The NBS data therefore support president Tinubu’s claim that Nigeria’s economy has grown by more than four per cent in 2026, although the figure refers specifically to year-on-year real GDP growth in the second quarter of 2026, rather than growth for the entire year.
VERDICT
The claim that Nigeria’s economy has grown by over four per cent this year is TRUE.
CLAIM 2
Tinubu says, “Inflation has fallen substantially from its peak.”
FINDINGS
Findings by The FactCheckHub show that the claim is TRUE.
Inflation measures how much the prices of goods and services have risen over time, typically over a year. It is measured using the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which tracks changes in the cost of goods and services commonly purchased by households.
Nigeria’s headline inflation rate fell to 15.39 per cent in August 2026, from 23.14 per cent in August 2025, according to the NBS. The August 2026 figure was calculated using the rebased CPI, which uses 2024 as the base year.
The decline means that the rate at which the average prices of goods and services increased was considerably lower in August 2026 than a year earlier. The headline inflation rate fell by 7.75 percentage points between August 2025 and August 2026.
On a month-on-month basis, headline inflation stood at 0.71 per cent in August 2026, meaning that average prices continued to increase during the month, although at a slower rate than the annual inflation figure might suggest. Month-on-month inflation measures the change in prices from one month to the next, while the year-on-year figure compares prices with those recorded in the same month of the previous year.
The moderation was also recorded in food inflation, although food prices continued to rise faster than the overall inflation rate. Food inflation stood at 19.57 per cent year-on-year in August 2026, compared with the headline inflation rate of 15.39 per cent, according to the NBS. (Note: Food inflation is the year‑on‑year percentage increase in the prices of food and non‑alcoholic beverages, typically measured using a country’s food CPI).
However, a fall in the inflation rate does not mean that the prices of goods and services have fallen or returned to their previous levels. Inflation measures the rate at which prices are changing. Therefore, if inflation falls from 20 per cent to 15 per cent, prices are still increasing, but at a slower rate than before.
The NBS data support the claim that the rate of inflation has fallen substantially. This, however, does not mean that the cost of living has returned to the levels recorded before the period of high inflation.
VERDICT
The claim that inflation has fallen substantially from its peak is TRUE. Official figures show a marked decline in the annual inflation rate, although the cost of goods and services remains a concern for households.
CLAIM 3
Tinubu says, “Oil theft is down.”
FINDINGS
Findings by The FactCheckHub show that the claim is TRUE.
According to the commission, Nigeria recorded average crude oil losses of 9,600 barrels per day in the seven months to July 2025, the lowest level recorded since 2009. NUPRC said this represented a decline from an average of 11,300 barrels per day in 2024.
The commission’s figures show that average daily crude oil losses fell from 102,900 barrels per day in 2021 to 57,200 barrels per day in 2022, before declining further to 11,900 barrels per day in 2023 and 11,300 barrels per day in 2024.
NUPRC also reported that between January and July 2025, Nigeria lost 2.04 million barrels of crude oil, equivalent to an average of 9,600 barrels per day. This was about 50.2 per cent lower than the 4.1 million barrels recorded over the whole of 2024. The commission said the 2021 figure represented the highest level of crude oil losses recorded in nearly 23 years.
The commission attributed the decline to a combination of security operations and regulatory measures. These included collaboration with security agencies, oil producers and host communities, as well as measures to improve the measurement of production and exports. NUPRC also said it had introduced metering audits and approved 37 new crude oil evacuation routes to help address oil losses.
VERDICT
The claim that oil theft is down is TRUE. Official data show a substantial reduction in reported crude oil losses.
CLAIM 4
Tinubu says that “in 2025, Nigeria recorded its highest revenue from non-oil exports in its history, exceeding $6 billion.”
FINDINGS
Findings by The FactCheckHub show that the claim is TRUE.
The Nigerian Export Promotion Council (NEPC) reported that Nigeria’s non-oil exports generated $6.1 billion in receipts in 2025, representing an 11.5 per cent increase from the $5.46 billion recorded in 2024.
In a report published on 24 February 2026, the council described the 2025 performance as the highest formally documented non-oil export value in Nigeria’s history.
The NEPC also reported that non-oil export volumes increased from 7.29 million metric tonnes in 2024 to 8.02 million metric tonnes in 2025, representing a 10 per cent increase.
The figures indicate that Nigeria earned more from exports outside the oil sector in 2025 than in any previous year covered by the council’s records.
However, the $6.1 billion figure refers to the value of non-oil export receipts, rather than government revenue collected from those exports. The distinction matters because export earnings accrue to exporters, while government revenue generally refers to taxes, duties and other public-sector receipts.
Infographic showing non-oil export
VERDICT
The claim that Nigeria recorded more than $6 billion in non-oil export earnings in 2025, the highest formally documented value in its history, is TRUE.
A POST circulating on social media claims that a photograph depicting a man arriving in Lagos from Paris does not show president Bola Tinubu, but rather an individual named “Nkoyo Nazebi” from the Democratic Republic of Congo.
The post, shared by a verified X user @EleluAyoola on 30 September 2026, features a close-up photograph of a man wearing a dark patterned kaftan, dark round sunglasses, and a branded native cap.
The caption reads:
“I have examined the picture closely. That man that landed in Lagos from Paris last night is not President Tinubu, that’s Nkoyo Nazebi from Congo DR.”
As of 1 October 2026, the post has garnered over 39,000 views, 700 likes and more than 200 comments.
Post claims that the man pictured arriving at the Lagos airport from Paris is not president Bola Tinubu, but a Congolese national named “Nkoyo Nazebi”.
screenshot of the viral claim
FINDINGS
Findings by The FactCheckHub show that the claim is UNPROVEN.
Searches across public registries, international news databases, and reverse image search done by The FactCheckHub revealed that the name “Nkoyo Nazebi” belongs to no known public figure, political official, or real person.
A forensic visual analysis of the image in question shows several noticeable physical discrepancies when compared to official video footage of Tinubu’s actual arrival at the Murtala Muhammed International Airport in Lagos on 29 September 2026. Official news footage recorded during the arrival shows Tinubu wearing a plain kaftan without front buttons, while the kaftan worn by the man in the viral photograph has visible metallic buttons along the chest.
Furthermore, the individual in the viral picture is wearing dark-tinted sunglasses, which does not match public appearance records or video of the president or any images of him at all.
While automated AI-detection tools returned inconclusive or real-image scores for the photo, the visual inconsistencies and physical differences between the subject in the photo and president Tinubu’s live appearance at the airport leave the authenticity and exact source of the image unverified.
Because the entity Nkoyo Nazebi does not exist and the origin of the manipulated or enhanced photo cannot be independently verified against official records of the Tinubu’s return, the claim cannot be substantiated.
VERDICT
The claim that the viral photograph shows a Congolese national named “Nkoyo Nazebi” instead of president Bola Tinubu is UNPROVEN. The referenced name belongs to no real person, and the photo contains visual inconsistencies that do not match official footage of the president’s arrival in Lagos State.
A video showing a large crowd marching with what appears to be messages against president Bola Tinubu has been shared on social media as evidence of a recent demonstration against the Nigerian president.
The video shows a large gathering, with a prominent “TINUBU MUST GO!” graphic attached to the footage.
An X account, Robinsongodwin (@Robinsondollar) posted the video with a caption:
“A large crowd is seen taking part in a public demonstration, with banners and messages expressing opposition to President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s administration. The video captures the scale and atmosphere of the gathering.”
The video has generated over 1000 reposts and more than 3000 likes as of 30 September 2026.
CLAIM
Video shows a recent public demonstration in which a large crowd gathered to express opposition to president Bola Tinubu’s administration.
Screenshot of the viral post
FINDINGS
Findings by The FactCheckHub show that the claim is MISLEADING.
A reverse search of the video led to an earlier post by Bashir Ahmad, former aide to late Nigerian president Muhammadu Buhari on X on 5 September 2026.
In the post, Ahmad said the gathering comprised APC stakeholders and supporters in Kano who had been mobilised “in numbers” to demonstrate where the political momentum in the state lies.
He specifically said the mobilisation was intended to counter the belief among supporters of Peter Obi that the choice of former Kano governor Rabiu Kwankwaso as Obi’s running mate would change the political equation in Kano.
Reports from the same day provide further context about the gathering.
The event was the inauguration of the Tinubu Support Group (TSG) structures in Kano and was held at the Sani Abacha Stadium. The gathering attracted APC leaders and thousands of supporters as the party intensified mobilisation for Tinubu ahead of the 2027 presidential election.
Similarly, Punch reported that more than 136,000 people were received into the APC during the event and that the new members pledged to mobilise support for Tinubu and the APC ahead of the 2027 elections.
The video therefore does not show an anti-Tinubu demonstration. It shows a large pro-Tinubu political mobilisation in Kano. The “TINUBU MUST GO!” wording attached to the circulating version changes the context of the original footage and makes the event appear to be the opposite of what it actually was.
VERDICT
The claim that the video shows anti-Tinubu protest is. MISLEADING. The video shows an APC/Tinubu support mobilisation held in Kano on 5 September 2026, not a demonstration against president Bola Tinubu.
