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FACT-CHECK: Ganduje says Kano is the safest state in Nigeria but he lied

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CLAIM: Kano is the most peaceful state in Nigeria

ON Saturday 8th February, Abdullahi Ganduje, the Kano State Governor reportedly boasted of the state as being the safest in Nigeria.

The governor made the claim during his meeting with President Muhammadu Buhari at the Villa in Abuja. From that period to date, the claim has spread across the media outlets including Channels Television where it had over 1,200 shares on Facebook.

Though, this claim is not his first. Ganduje had made similar claims in the past scoring his state higher on security index.

“Kano state, as of today, is the most peaceful state in the country,” Ganduje declared. “No armed robbery, no banditry, no tribal conflict, no religious conflict, even the few cases of kidnapping, the kingpins have been arrested,” he claimed.

He attributed the feat to community policing and the cooperation among the security operatives, through what he described as a command and control centre where all the security architecture is able to effectively communicate across the 44 local government areas.

“There is full cooperation among the security agencies and Kano state is providing an enabling environment for the security agencies, especially in terms of community policing. Also, we have succeeded in establishing a very powerful command and control centre where all security agencies, their representatives, do communicate with each other. And from that centre, the security agencies are being able to communicate with all the DPOs across the 44 local government areas of the state.”

Casualty Figure of Killings in the Northern States of Nigeria Infogram By Olugbenga Adanikin, The ICIR

Findings

But contrary to his claim, Kano is considered unsafe as Adamawa, Kaduna, and Bauchi States based on the latest rating of the United States government. This was as at 29th October, last year.

The US government will often issue travel alerts to its citizens abroad on the concerned security situation in the country of visit. This is to discourage travellers from visiting the locations identified in the travel alert.

In its regular warnings, Nigeria was placed on Level 3, which implies American citizens should reconsider their travel plans to Nigeria.  Among the states considered risky is Kano.

Though, Borno, Yobe and Northern Adamawa were classified unsafe due to terrorist attack, Kano made the same list of risky states due to ‘kidnapping.’

Figure from the Nigerian Security Tracker, an initiative of the Council on Foreign Relations (cfr) also proved wrong the claim attributed to the governor.

Data collected from May 2011 to February this year further showed that 1,052 deaths were recorded in Kano during the period. In fact, this figure is much lower to what was recorded in Sokoto which had 258 casualties, Jigawa recorded 32 deaths, Gombe also recorded 471 casualties.

More so, Bauchi witnessed (480) deaths, Niger (479), Katsina (661), Kebbi recorded 28 deaths.

A recent report released by Global Rights, rights Non-Governmental Organisation last week ranked Kano number six on the list in its Mass Atrocities Casualties Tracking study (2019). While Abia state only had one casualty, Kano recorded nine deaths in the year under review.

The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), in its 2017 Crime Statistics released June 2018, revealed that based on reported offences by offence type and the concerned states, Kebbi recorded the lowest percentage share of total reported cases pegged at 205 (0.5 per cent), followed by Kogi 282 (0.20 per cent) and Bauchi states 386 (0.30 per cent) respectively.

Kano recorded a total of 5, 705 reported cases ranking 4th on the list according to the crime statistics under review. This represents 4.2 per cent of the total reported case nationwide put at 134, 663.

Verdict:  

Based on the available evidence, Kano is not the safest state in Nigeria. It has recorded killings as well as other forms of criminalities, except that the crime level is not as high as other states in the northern region like Borno, Yobe and Adamawa, particularly recorded deaths caused by violent attacks.

As such, the claim made by Ganduje about Kano being the safest state in Nigeria is inaccurate.

CHECK: Did Lai Mohammed describe Nigeria as the world’s ‘safest’ country to live in?

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THOUGH news reports published on Monday quoted the Information Minister Lai Mohammed, saying Nigeria is the “safest and freest country” to live in the world, there is no record showing he made this statement.

“Nigeria is safest country to live in the world – Lai Mohammed,” Daily Post’s headline read before replacing “safest” with “freest”.

“The Minister of Information and Culture, Alhaji Lai Mohammed, has described Nigeria as the freest country to live in the world,” the online paper reported, stating that the comment was made while the minister received Jyrki Pulkkimen, the Finnish Ambassador to Nigeria and his team.

A similar report was published by Pulse. “Despite the increasing insecurity situation in Nigeria, the Minister of Information and Culture, Lai Mohammed, has described Nigeria as the safest country to live in the world,” Pulse reported.

The Nation also credited the minister with this statement. But it has pulled down the publication, though the link is still on its social media platforms. While it has been liked 210 times and retweeted by 73 users on Twitter, on Facebook it gathered over 3,200 comments, was shared by over 2,800 users, and liked by over 1,800.

None of the reports provided a direct quote from Mohammed’s speech, and checks by The ICIR show that he did not in fact describe Nigeria as the safest and freest country in the world. At least, these descriptions were not contained in a press statement released yesterday by Segun Adeyemi, the special assistant to the president under the office of the minister of information and culture.

The ICIR also obtained a complete recording of the minister’s speech at the meeting and saw the only time he mentioned safety was with respect to the social media.

“If we want to stifle the media, we want to violate everybody’s human rights, we are not going to call the same stakeholders in human rights, media to a roundtable conference on how do we go about sanitising the social media; because as we speak today we will be meeting later in the month with leaders of the media, civil society, security and other stakeholders on how do we sanitise our social media and make our social media safe for all,” he said.

He also did not say Nigeria is the freest country but “one of the freest countries to live in the world”.

Joe Mutah, chief press secretary to the information minister, told The ICIR, the reports are a “practical example” of misrepresentation in the media.

He said the context of Mohammed’s comments was press freedom, not security.

“The minister said Nigeria has the freest environment to operate as journalists,” he said.

“We are not talking about security, we are talking about press freedom. It is a discussion about the government not going out of its way to gag the press. Let the country have a free press; isn’t that the expression we use?”

Meanwhile, Nigeria is neither one of the safest places to live nor one of the freest countries in the world for journalists. Rather, it qualifies more appropriately as one of the worst-performing.

The 2019 Global Peace Index, which measures societal safety, security, and conflict, ranks Nigeria 148th out of 163 countries. And, according to the 2019 World Press Freedom Index, the country is ranked 120th out of a total of 180 countries.

 

Below is the information minister’s full speech:

Your Excellencies, it’s quite a pleasure to want to receive the Finland Ambassador to Nigeria… You will be wondering why do I have the entire gamut of my information and creative industry, for the simple reason that this platform is about innovation. It’s about the creative industry, it’s about information, and that is why I brought the CEOs of the various creative industry, information to witness this particular courtesy visit.

My understanding of the Freedom Online Coalition is that it is a coalition of a body of countries, like-minded, and whose objective is actually human rights, privacy, security, and trust. And as of today there about 31 members and only three so far from Africa, Tanzania, Ghana, and I think Tunisia. I don’t know what yardstick was used to describe Nigeria as not a like-minded country, I think {inaudible} explain to us.

When I look at the objectives of the FOC, I think you’ve come to preach to the converted already. When it comes to innovation, this administration, and I am glad that the ambassador has also confirmed that when it comes to innovation, Nigeria is probably the African hub for innovation. And this is not by accident, because we have a pool of very young, talented, and ambitious young people in Nigeria. And I think as recently as three months ago, in Dubai, a Nigerian came first in innovation.

We intend to push this because when you look at the creative industry in particular which is the fastest-growing part of the economy, which employs the second largest number of people after agriculture, you can see why innovation and technology is very important to this administration. And we have put together legislation and other incentives to encourage young men and women in innovative technology.

Now, I know that the ambassador said whatever is going to be tolerated, you know, offline should be tolerated online, and that’s why the issue of human rights has come. I think for us in Nigeria, respect for human rights is a cardinal principle of not just our constitution but day-to-day governance. And I am yet to see any country with the kind of population we have, with the kind of multi-values, multi-culture, multi-religion, that has at the same time striven to balance, you know, national security with freedom of the press and freedom of the media.

I make bold to say that this administration, in particular, has no intention and does not tamper with the freedom of speech or freedom of individuals. But more often than not, we do confuse activists and politicians, we confuse them with journalists. And this is the point we made everywhere we went, that there is a difference between journalists and activists. At the same time, every country in the world, the first preoccupation of that country is the preservation of the people. So, yes, once in a while, there might be need to draw that gap, let there be a balance between national security and the freedom of the press or of the individual. But I make bold to say that Nigeria is one of the freest countries to live in the world. 

I know you spoke about freedom and human rights. Yes, it is true that we especially in this ministry, we’ve watched with some trepidation the social media front, and we see how some people have tried to abuse the new technology to cause disaffection, especially pushing fake news and hate speech. In a country where you have many religions, many ethnicities, many ethnic groups, many values, the government cannot fold its arms and see some unguarded individuals trying to take advantage of the differences in values to cause disharmony; and this is why this ministry, in particular, decided that it is important to sanitise the social media scene.

Sanitisation does not necessarily mean legislation, and it does not mean by any imagination stifling of the press or the media, no. We are going to have a media as free as anywhere in the world, but we must have a responsibly free media and that is our goal. Hate speech, fake news, disinformation have done more to destabilise the globe than any plague in recent times. And examples abound within Nigeria and outside Nigeria. Outside Nigeria, the classic case is the Rwandan genocide, where over 800,000 lives were lost within a short period just to hate speech, false news, fake news, and disinformation. So our attempt to sanitise the social media is not at all an attempt to stifle the media. I want to make this very clear.

If we want to stifle the media, we want to violate everybody’s human rights, we are not going to call the same stakeholders in human rights, media to a roundtable conference on how do we go about sanitising the social media; because as we speak today we will be meeting later in the month with leaders of the media, civil society, security and other stakeholders on how do we sanitise our social media and make our social media safe for all. How do we ensure that people do not {inaudible} to cause disharmony in the country; so that is all that is about our social media regulation. It is not about stifling the media, it is not about violating anybody’s human rights. But it’s out own response to a responsible social media and we are not alone in this; I know that France, I know that the UK, I know that Pakistan, China, Japan all have one way or the other trying to regulate the social media, without necessarily tampering with the freedom of the individual or the media. 

And just like a parliamentarian said in France, whatever is not tolerated on the streets should not be tolerated online, which is the reverse of what the ambassador talked about human rights. So we are very concerned, very committed about sanitising the social media. Now, I said at the beginning that you’ve come out here to preach to the converted. Just before we came in, in our private meeting, he expressed his fears of exactly what the world is going through, disinformation, fake news, and hate speech. And I want to say here that, long before it became popular, this administration started fighting hate speech and fake news. We started in 2017, and we devoted an entire national conference on information to address the issue of hate speech because we saw it very early that it is probably the biggest threat the military of this country will face.

We’ve also, since 2018, launched the national campaign on fake news by going to various news organisations, media houses, and signing them on to join us in our fight against fake news. And interestingly enough, when I was discussing with the Ambassador for Innovation, he says another aspect which bothers the Freedom Online Coalition is the deliberate denial online about the existence of climate change, and I said that is strange to us here because we are the victims of climate change. We are the victims of climate change, not just because it affects our environment but it also affects our economy, it affects the peace and stability of the country, it affects social interaction.

Look at Lake Chad, some 50 years ago, it covered some 25,000 square km, and supported livelihood in seven countries. But today, the same Lake Chad has shrunk by 90 per cent, and that means that all those about 50 major tribes that were dependent on the Lake Chad now have to look elsewhere for sustenance. And part of the conflicts we witness in Nigeria, with herdsmen-farmers clash, was directly also traceable to the dwindling water vapour in the Lake Chad, because it meant then that those pastoralists that depended on the Lake Chad to rear their cattle had to look elsewhere in the South and in the process there were this conflicts. So for us in Nigeria, climate change is real because it has affected our economy, it has affected our environment, it is affecting our politics and our stability; and we would join hands with the Freedom Online Coalition to ensure that those denialists on climate change that we tackle them robustly because we have seen, we have been victims of climate change and we know it is real. 

Of course, we have established the fact that our creative industry, especially the film and music industry, film, music, fashion, photography, and innovative technology are the fastest moving sectors of our economy. And today the film industry alone employs about one million people and contributes about 1.4 per cent of our GDP, but we look forward to next two, three years when another one and a half million people will be employed by the same sector and they will be able to contribute about 3.5 per cent to the GDP.

But the most important thing about our creative industry is its ability to employ more people. Like I said, after agriculture, it employs the largest number of people, and mostly the young. This is a great country for anybody to come and invest in the creative industry. In 2014, we had just about 23 cinema houses and they were about 51. Today, we have about 100 screens; but a population of 200 million people, we need a minimum of 1000 cinema houses and about 16,000 screens. So this is an area where we will be looking for investment and the investors will actually smile to the bank. 

Our music industry has also grown amazingly from $23 million revenue in 2014 and by 2021 we will be looking at recouping about $56 million in revenue. Our fashion industry is probably one of the most expansive in the world. That is another area we can look forward to collaboration from other countries.

So, once again, I welcome the two ambassadors. I pledge our preparedness to work with the Freedom Online Coalition and we stand shoulder-to-shoulder with you in your fight against disinformation and in your fight against fake news and in your fight against hate speech. I thank you very much.

FACT CHECK: No social media bill before NASS and three other recent lies from Lai Mohammed

NIGERIA’s information and culture minister Lai Mohammed, during a recent visit to London, was featured by Deutsche Welle (DW) in an half-hour-long interview the German news channel shared on Wednesday.

The minister responded to questions on a number of allegations against the country, including human rights violations, extrajudicial killings, corruption, lack of transparency in the extractive sector, and lack of press freedom.

He insisted, despite several reports to the contrary, that Nigeria has been cooperating with the International Criminal Court and United Nations, in terms of providing needed information about the cases of rights violation. But on Friday, the US government banned Nigerians from obtaining certain visas based on a similar allegation: not complying “with the established identity-management and information-sharing criteria”.

In this fact-check, The ICIR takes a look at four claims made by Mohammed, which we have found to be false and misleading.

UN report on extrajudicial killing gave no examples

DW’s Tim Sebastian asked Mohammed about a 13-page report released last September by Agnes Callamard, the UN Special Rapporteur on extrajudicial, summary or arbitrary executions. Callamard had talked about “country-wide patterns of abuses, including the police and military’s excessive use of lethal force and violation of international standards”.

Reacting to findings of the report, the information minister, who confirmed reading it, said he “would have been much more impressed if examples are giving”.

But, contrary to his suggestion, examples were in fact given by Callamard—at least 12 of them. On page 7, the UN highlights allegations of human rights violations in the Middle Belt, including that:

  • On 4 December 2017, Nigeria’s air force fired rockets at villages of Lawaru, Dong, Kodomti, Shafaron and Nzuruwei as a “warning” to deter spiraling communal violence, causing dozens of deaths.
  • In 2018, 86 persons were killed in the villages of Palang, Tisan, Nghar, Ruku, Exlan in the State of Plateau, while Military officers were present and refused to engage with the attackers.
  • In October 2017, regarding an attack of Mkievowro in Plateau State, witnesses reported that “soldiers present were bribed by Fulanis Herdsmen”, and that attack resulted in the killing of some 29 people who sought safety in a school.

The report also mentioned instances of government crackdown against the Islamic Movement of Nigeria (IMN) as well as arbitrary killings of the members of the Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB).

No social media bill before the National Assembly

Sebastian asked the information about the Protection from Internet Falsehood and Manipulation Bill, which he said carries draconian provisions and through which journalists could be imprisoned.

“And who is the author of that bill?” Mohammed interjected. “I am not even aware of that bill,” he said when DW asked for his position.

“It’s causing an outcry internationally and you are the minister of information and you know nothing about it?” Sebastian asked.

Mohammed then replied emphatically, “There is no such bill before the House. I can say that authoritatively. There is no such bill before the House.”

But the Protection from Internet Falsehood and Manipulation and Other Related Matters Bill is the short title given to a bill introduced in November by Mohammed Sani Musa, the lawmaker representing the Niger East senatorial district.

Also known as the social media bill, it has already passed first and second reading and has been referred to the Senate Committee on Judiciary, Human Rights and Legal Matters—despite widespread condemnation.

No other govt. has convicted high-profile politicians

According to Mohammed, “No government has ever succeeded in securing the conviction of high-profile politicians like this administration, especially those of them who belonged to the ruling party. We continue to fight corruption.”

But the records show otherwise.

In 2009, the Lagos State High Court convicted Olabode George, former chairman of the Nigerian Ports Authority, of contract splitting and inflation, and sentenced him and four others to a 28-year jail term. The Court of Appeal upheld this verdict. The Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) had indicted George when Nuhu Ribadu was chairman, but the prosecution started in 2008 with Farida Waziri heading the commission.

George was a chieftain of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), which only ceased being in power at the federal level in 2015. At various times between 2001 and 2008, he was national vice-chairman in the southwest zone, deputy national chairman (South) and head of the national disciplinary committee.

Though later pardoned by former President Goodluck Jonathan, late Diepreye Alamieyeseigha was convicted in 2007 for money laundering and not declaring his assets and was sentenced to two years imprisonment. Until his impeachment in 2005, he was a two-time governor of Bayelsa State and member of the PDP.

Another member of the (then ruling) PDP, former Edo governor Lucky Igbinedion was fined in December by a Federal High Court in a N25 billion financial fraud case.

Other high-profile corruption cases concluded in Nigeria, as compiled by TheCable, involved former IGP Mustapha Balogun and former assistant director in the federal civil service John Yusuf. The criminal prosecution of former Plateau governor Joshua Dariye and former Abia governor Orji Uzor Kalu, who were respectively convicted in 2018 and 2019, was also set in motion during the rule of PDP.

No missing oil money since 2015

The information minister was asked about a report from Global Witness that said most Nigerians live in poverty despite a 50-year oil boom and an estimated $400 billion has gone missing from state coffers. He replied that, under the watch of the current administration, allegations of embezzlement cannot be substantiated.

“I can say categorically that between 2015 and today, nobody can talk about oil money missing,” Mohammed said right before the DW interview ended.

There have, however, been such allegations under the Muhammadu Buhari-led government.

A 2016 report published by the Natural Resource Governance Institute stated that, within the first six months of Buhari’s presidency, the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) withheld over N824.7 billion from a total revenue of N1.24 trillion got from crude oil sales — “about 14 per cent more than the amount withheld by the corporation under the Goodluck Jonathan administration in the first half of 2015”.

In 2018, Dino Melaye, then the lawmaker representing Kogi West senatorial district, alleged “monumental corruption” at the NNPC involving an account unlawfully operated under a commercial bank and used to siphon millions of dollars.

The following year, the NNPC itself admitted there is still corruption in its operations and disclosed that it recovered $1.6 billion from companies “who were fleecing the NNPC subsidiary, the NPDC”.

EXTRA: DW cites outdated information on extractive sector

It is not only the information minister who made misleading statements during the interview, DW’s Sebastian also blundered.

Besides wrongly claiming Nigeria’s hate speech bill was sponsored by the executive arm, he cited a report from the National Resources Institute which, “based on data from 2017,  you have failed to regularly to disclose publicly the financial interests of government officials in the extractive sector, all the identities of beneficial owners in extractive companies despite making public commitments to do so”.

Mohammed appeared to have misinterpreted the question as he instead talked about assets declaration by public officials as regulated by the Code of Conduct Bureau.

But then, the latest development is that this trend in the extractive sector has been reversed. Two weeks after promising publicly to do so last November, the Nigerian Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (NEITI) released a register of beneficial owners of oil assets and companies.

Data from its web portal, accessed on Friday by The ICIR, has names of 181 and 92 beneficial owners in the oil & gas and solid mineral industries respectively.

FACT CHECK: Femi Adesina exaggerated, there weren’t 10 bombings a day before Buhari

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FEMI Adesina, spokesman to President Muhammadu Buhari said there were as many as 10 bombings in a single day before Buhari’s administration started in 2015.

This is not true, according to checks by The ICIR.

Adesina made the claim, on Sunday, during an interview aired on Channels Television while reacting to recent terrorist attacks, including a bomb blast in Borno state that morning.

He said, though the attacks were regrettable, the state of insecurity in the country is not as bad as the host made it seem “because we know what the situation was as of 2015 and we know what it is today”.

“Despite the reversals in security, it is still not as bad as it used to be in this country. There was a bombing or two today,” he said.

Raising his voice for emphasis, the special adviser on media and publicity added, “There was a time that there were five, six, 10 bombings in a day in this country.

“If you hear Nigerian media, if you hear social media particularly, even if you hear some international agencies, you will think that it is all over in the Northeast. It is not. The people living there will tell you that the difference between now and 2015 is the difference between heaven and hell.”

But while Adesina accused the media of downplaying the current administration’s achievements, The ICIR found that he was guilty of exaggerating the level of insecurity prior to 2015.

Nigeria has never recorded 10 bombings a day

Even though there have been fewer fatalities since 2015 compared to the previous five years, it is not true there ever was a time when Nigeria recorded as many as 10 bomb explosions in a day.

The Armed Conflict Location and Event Data (ACLED) Project records extensive data on political violence and killings in over 100 countries and is described as the “highest quality, most widely used, real-time data and analysis source on political violence and protest around the world”.

As of January 16, the platform has recorded over 200,000 violent incidents from Africa alone since 1997, nearly 16,000 out of which took place in Nigeria.

We went through the data set and filtered out events between 2009 when the Boko Haram uprising started in Bauchi, and May 2015, when Buhari was sworn in as President. There are six different categories of attacks, so we extracted only data relating to explosions and remote violence.

We further removed all data relating to attacks perpetrated by government actors such as the police and military forces. What we were left with were 301 incidents of explosion orchestrated mostly by Boko Haram, the Islamic State (West Africa), Fulani ethnic militia, Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND), and unidentified armed groups.

The statistics show that between 2009 and May 29, 2015, there have been 41 days during which there were more than one bomb explosions. On 31 days, two explosions each were recorded and on five days, there were three explosions. There were four explosions recorded on three days, five explosions recorded on a day (December 25, 2011), and six explosions on another day (June 17, 2012).

From May 30, 2015, to January 2020, on the other hand, explosions numbering over one have taken place on 23 days, and only once were they up to three—on October 22, 2017.

The data also shows that explosions that occurred between 2009 and 2015 led to the death of 2,634 people, while those that took place since 2015 (237 of them) have killed up to 2,307 people.

Conclusion

While it is true that on two different occasions, Nigeria recorded up to five and six explosions within a 24-hour period, there was no day when there were up to 10 as claimed by the president’s spokesman.

Buhari, Osinbajo misguided on Disability Rights Bill at town hall meeting

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CHECKS conducted by The ICIR have indicated that President Muhammadu Buhari and his running mate, Vice President Yemi Osinbajo, were mistaken about the Discrimination against Persons with Disabilities (Prohibition) Bill yesterday at The Candidates, a presidential town hall meeting co-produced by Daria Media and Nigerian Television Authority.

“I think we sent [it] to the National Assembly,” Buhari said after the host, Kadaria Ahmed, repeated the question on why the bill has not been assented to since its passage.

When Ahmed informed him that the instrument, more commonly referred to as the Disability Rights Bill, has been returned to the presidency, Osinbajo interjected to say he is not aware of that taking place.

“Even as of Wednesday, there was a demonstration in front of the National Assembly where they were saying that they were giving the National Assembly seven days to transmit the bill to us, to the presidency. I am not aware of that. We are not aware,” he said.

There are however no available reports of this demonstration. The last time such protest was reportedly held at the National Assembly by the disability community, to mount pressure on lawmakers into transmitting the bill, was on October 8, 2018 — coincidentally a Wednesday too.

It was at this demonstration that protesters, under the body of the Coalition of Disability Organizations, issued a seven-day ultimatum to the National Assembly.

On December 18, the bill was finally transmitted to the president for assent. This was revealed by David Anyaele, Executive Director of the Centre for Citizens with Disabilities (CCD).

Anyaele had, in November, said the bill had issues with certain clauses that needed to be added and commended the federal legislative houses for completing action on the document. “Now that the National Assembly has completed action on the bill, the focus of our campaign is on the office of the President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria for his assent,” he said.

Last Friday, in Nasarawa, coordinator of the Joint National Association of Persons Living with Disability, Yusuf Iyodo, still urged Buhari to sign the bill into law before the general elections.

‘Buhari’s claim is incorrect’

Irene Patrick-Ogbogu, Executive Director of the Disability Rights Advocacy Centre, has explained that what the president made reference to was the bill’s return to the National Assembly months ago.

“It is not correct,” she said about the claim that the bill is not with the presidency. “The president was referring to a couple of months ago when the bill was returned to the National Assembly and the National Assembly has since effected whatever corrections that were raised by the presidency and transmitted it back to the president. It was transmitted back to the presidency on the 18th of December last year.”

She said she does not understand why the president and the vice seem not to know about this and are passing the buck to the National Assembly.

“We know for a fact that the bill is not with the National Assembly anymore,” she added.

“It’s been transmitted to the president. I think the presidency have to look into their processes and procedures of managing bills or communication from the National Assembly because the bill is there. It just requires assent. My recommendation is for them to look into it immediately, find the bill and sign it into law.”

The lawmaker who sponsored the bill at the House of Representatives, Idagbo Ochiglegor, also said he is surprised the president could not intelligently address why he has not signed the bill into law though it has been transmitted to him. He suggested that Buhari could have rejected the bill without reading it, because he took exception to other bills sent to him at the same time.

“The problem I think is that most of the bills that are transmitted to him are transmitted not as single bills but in batches; and when he has an issue with any particular bill, he does not attend to any other of them,” he said in a phone conversation with The ICIR.

“I think that yesterday’s programme was a wake-up call for him, and I think he should single out the Persons With Disability Bill and sign it into law.”

He said the Vice President does not have the relevant facts as the National Assembly already handled the protest he referred to at the programme. The lawmaker lamented that Nigeria is one of few countries in Africa without a law to protect persons with disability, and added that the bill, when signed, will not only help a lot of people who are disabled, it will also aid Buhari’s aspiration for a second term.

“It makes him popular even before election…, and the disabled people are waiting on the bill to vote for him if they find him worthy,” he said.

The CCD has also made signing the bill a requirement for supporting the Buhari/Osinbajo campaign. The bill has been at the National Assembly since 2000 and it was because the All Progressive Congress promised to expedite its passage in 2015 that its members voted massively for it in the last elections, the group said in 2017.

Presidency asks to comment ‘much later’

The presidency asked not to give a comment immediately about the discrepancy. “You can talk to me much later, not now sir,” Ita Enang, former senator and Senior Special Assistant to President Muhammadu Buhari on National Assembly Matters, curtly replied after he was asked for an explanation.

When our reporter asked for a specific time to call again, he did not say. A subsequent call to his phone was not answered.

Akeredolu’s govt lies about reducing debt

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Ondo’s debt profile has increased by 17 per cent since 2016.

THE ONDO State Government led by Rotimi Akeredolu claimed it inherited a total debt of N220 billion from the previous administration of Olusegun Mimiko. The government also claimed it has reduced the debt by half since the inauguration of Akerodolu in 2016. The two claims are false, according to checks carried out by The ICIR.

Donald Ojogo, the state commissioner for Information and Orientation, made the claims on Monday during an interview with  Sunrise Daily, a current affairs programme aired by ChannelsTV. Ondo government’s official website later published Ojogo’s statements shortly after.

According to the commissioner, Akeredolu’s administration has reduced the debt inherited from the previous government (N220 billion) by 50 per cent and has increased “the Internally General Revenue (IGR) of the state from the N700 million inherited from the PDP [People’s Democratic Party] administration to over N1 billion monthly.

“Our resolve as a government is that by the time we leave office in the next five years, I said in the next five years because Mr Governor is going to recontest and win by God’s grace, we hope to leave the government without debt for the incoming administration after our two terms,” he said.

N68.3 billion inherited

Ojogo’s claim about Ondo State’s inherited debt from the PDP-led government is off-target. Data from the Debt Management Office (DMO), in fact, revealed that the state’s debt profile has increased since 2016.

Akeredolu was declared governor of Ondo State in November 2016 and was sworn in  February.

DMO statistics reveal that as of December 2016, the state’s domestic debt was N53.2 billion while its external debt was $49.5 million (N15.1 billion). Altogether, its debt was N68.3 billion.

This is only 31 per cent of N220 billion claimed by the state.

By December 2017, the state’s debt had increased to N73.9 billion. A year later the debt came down to N73.6 billion but again increased to N79.8 billion as of June 2019.

Therefore, rather than supposedly reduce by 50 per cent between 2016 and 2019, Ondo State’s debt increased by 16.85 per cent.

Line chart showing the trend of Ondo State’s domestic and external debts between 2016 and 2019. Source: DMO.

IGR figure understated

The state commissioner distorted facts not only about the present administration’s debt reduction performance but his claim on internally generated revenue is also grossly understated, check by The ICIR has revealed.

He said the government inherited by Akeredolu’s administration was IGR of N700 million per month and this has improved to “over N1 billion monthly”.

According to the National Bureau of Statistics, Ondo State generated total internal revenue of N8.68 billion in 2016, which is the same as N723 million per month. But the state’s IGR has improved beyond the commissioner’s modest assessment.

Latest NBS statistics show that the state currently generates an average of N3.2 billion in a month.

Ondo’s total IGR was N19 billion in the first two quarters of 2019. The total IGR for all four quarters in 2018 was N24.8 billion, equalling an average monthly IGR of N2 billion.

In the last two quarters of 2017, the average monthly IGR was N975 million. It crossed the one billion naira line in the first quarter of 2018 when the state generated N1.2 billion per month. And, by the last quarter of that year, it had increased to N3.4 billion per month.

Line chart showing the trend of Ondo State’s average monthly IGR between 2012 and 2019. Source: NBS.

The Fact

Our finding: The Ondo Commissioner for Information’s claim about the state’s inherited debt profile is false. Akeredolu inherited N68.3 billion as debt, not N220 billion. Also, the state’s debt has increased to N79.8 billion in the last three years and not reduced by 50 per cent as claimed.

In addition, while Ojogo’s claim about IGR generated under the immediate past administration is fairly accurate, the figure he gave about the improvement in the IGR is understated.

FACT CHECK: Did a news report describe Sowore as gravely ill?

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THE CIRCUMSTANCES of former presidential aspirant Omoyele Sowore’s rearrest on Friday have led many to speculate that the Department of State Services (DSS) intends to cause him harm—or that it already has. But there is no reliable information backing any of these claims.

“Watch this video and repeat it over and over again then you will know that Sowore has been poisoned via injection inside the courtroom,” a Twitter user, @Napalivia, wrote assuredly on Saturday. “After the DSS undercover agent successfully injected the poison in Sowore, the very guy that pinned him down quickly released him.”

But not all insinuations about Sowore’s health condition were based strictly on an analysis of the videos. Also on Saturday, Farooq Kperogi, a columnist and Assistant Professor of Communication at Kennesaw State University, wrote that Sahara Reporters (SR), a news agency started by Sowore in 2006, confirmed that its founder is gravely ill.

“Omoyele Sowore MUST NOT DIE in Buhari’s gulag! There’re indications that he was injected with poison in the court yesterday,” Kperogi wrote on Facebook. “Video clips affirm this. Sahara Reporters also said he’s gravely ill now. People of conscience should insist that the DSS bring him out to ascertain his state of health NOW.”

His post has attracted 383 reactions, 46 comments, and has been shared 117 times. It has also been reposted by others on platforms such as Twitter and a news blog.

No such claim in report

Sahara Reporters had, on Friday, reported that there are “renewed fears over Sowore’s safety as strange man hits journalist in neck with unknown substance in courtroom.” This is the closest publication to the attribution made but a read through showed that it does not describe Sowore as gravely ill.

The online newspaper only recounted the events inside the courtroom after the proceedings as captured in various videos, reported that there is growing fear over Sowore’s state of health, and repeated Sowore’s earlier allegation about plans to kill him.

An advanced search through Sahara Reporters’ Twitter account also revealed that, from the beginning of December, the word “poison” has appeared only once from an unrelated report published on the 4th, “sick” has appeared once in an op-ed written by Erasmus Ikhide, and neither “gravely” nor “ill” have been used recently.

SR editor: Sowore in good condition but … 

The editor of Sahara Reporters, Eric Dumo, told The ICIR on Monday that the information available to him, in fact, is that Sowore is currently in good condition. He also said the media organisation, like everyone else, cannot confirm claims that he was poisoned.

“No, the report wasn’t about him being ill,” he said.

“There were fears about his safety. We published that story because, from that video that has gone viral, if you look at it, you see there is a man struggling under him in the court and somebody, we don’t know who that person is, from behind hit Sowore on the neck and immediately Sowore sprung up and was asking him, ‘Why did you hit me? What did you hit me with?’

“So, that raised some fears that he could have been injected with some unknown substance. But we cannot also verify. We cannot also completely or 100 per cent say this is the fact, but that video raised fears among his supporters, family members.”

He said Sowore is fine “for now” and is not under any threat.

“That report was just reacting to that incident. The report didn’t confirm that we are so sure he was injected… Nobody can confirm that indeed he was injected with any dangerous substance. But as we speak he is in a very good condition. He is not sick or under threat.”

The Sahara Reporters editor, however, stressed that Sowore nevertheless needs medical attention having been in detention for very long.

“This is a man who has been in detention for over 126 days and he has not had access to any doctor or any form of medical care. So it is natural that his health may not be in top shape,” he said.

“But we don’t have any report of his medical state at this time, but from all we have seen it is obvious that the man will need a lot of medical attention having been in detention for that long.”

While Sowore may be safe and sound though, his prolonged detention by the DSS despite court orders granting him bail may have worsened the health condition of his mother, Esther Sowore.

“My mind is disturbed that he has not been allowed to go for medical care since August,” she said in an interview with Objective Media TV last week.

“I am a widow, release my son. I cannot eat, I cannot sleep and it is affecting my health. Please release Omoyele Sowore, my son. He is not a criminal.”

Verdict

It is incorrect that Sahara Reporters said Sowore is “gravely ill now”. This claim was not made in any of its recent reports and has been denied by the online paper’s editor.

FACT CHECK: Are 2 million Nigerians raped every year? Here’s what we know

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NIGERIA’s Minister of Women Affairs and Social Development, Dame Pauline Tallen, according to a report, said last week that two (2) million Nigerians are raped every year, but there is no reliable public data to support or disprove this claim.

“The Federal Government on Monday launched the Sex Offenders register to tackle issues of rape in Nigeria, saying the over two million Nigerian girls and women being raped annually is unacceptable,” the Daily Trust wrote in two separate reports.

“Minister of Women Affairs and Social Development (FMWASD), Dame Pauline Tallen, disclosed this in Abuja while unveiling the register at the 2019 International Day for Elimination of Violence Against Women, saying there cannot be any justification for rape.”

When we asked the Director of Press at the Ministry of Women Affairs, Shehu Maikai, about the report, he said he could neither confirm whether the minister truly made the claim nor that it is true because he does not have “the statistics readily available”. He, however, promised to find out and share his discovery with The ICIR. (We will update this report once that happens.)

As far back as in 2011, Caroline Ajie, a human rights lawyer, made a similar claim by estimating that “at least 2 million Nigerian girls experience sexual abuse annually and that only 28 per cent of rape cases are reported”. It is not clear what the estimate is based on.

What is reported to the police

Latest statistics from the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crimes (UNODC) which captures the number of police-recorded offences of rape and sexual violence in various countries up till 2010 does not include figures on Nigeria. This caused Amnesty International, in its 2006 country report of Nigeria to complain that “the Federal Government does not make public any records it holds of incidents of gender-based violence in general nor of rape in particular”.

Since this period, however, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) has twice released a breakdown of crime statistics in the country—in 2016 and 2017.

The 2016 report does not specify how many cases of rape were reported but instead states that there were 45,554 cases of “offences against persons”. These include murder, manslaughter, infanticide, concealment of birth, rape and other physical abuse, and so on.

In 2017, the NBS went a step further by providing statistics for specific crimes. According to the statistical agency, that year, 2,279 cases of “rape and indecent assault” were recorded by police across the country.

Figures from the Nigerian Correctional Service on “prison admission by type of offence” are, however, higher. In 2013, 5,797 Nigerians were admitted for “sex offences”. In 2014, this figure dropped to 4,436. And by the second quarter of 2015, the figure was 1,621.

Records from other countries show that in South Africa, 41,583 cases of rape were recorded in 2018/19 and 52,420 cases of sexual offences generally; and at least 38,947 cases of rape were recorded in India in 2016. Each year in the United States, there are on average 433,648 victims of rape and sexual assault—the world’s highest in absolute terms.

Police reports don’t show the full picture

For various reasons, including the fear of stigmatisation, police extortion, and a lack of trust in the criminal justice system, the vast majority of sexual assault victims do not make formal reports at police stations.

In the US according to the National Crime Victimization Survey conducted by the Justice Department, out of every 1000 cases of sexual assault, only 230 (23 per cent) are reported to the police.

In the United Kingdom, official statistics on sexual violence released by the Ministry of Justice, Office for National Statistics, and Home Office revealed that only about 15 per cent of people who experience sexual assault report to the police.

A public opinion poll conducted by NOIPolls in 2019 shows that underreporting is also a problem in Nigeria. One academic study estimates that only two of 40 cases of rape (five per cent) are reported as a result of “arduous legal requirements needed to prove the cases and the associated stigma”.

Conclusion

There is no evidence supporting the claim attributed to the Women Affairs minister that up to two million Nigerians are raped or sexually assaulted every year.

Most recent statistics from the NBS state that 2,279 cases of rape and indecent assault were reported to the police in 2017. And the Nigerian Correctional Service has said 4,436 people were jailed for sex-related crimes in 2014.

Many studies have, however, established that official records are grossly inadequate in offering insights into the prevalence of sexual violence across the world.

Did China close its borders ‘to the whole world’ for 20 to 40 years?

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IN DEFENDING Nigeria’s decision to close its land borders, the Comptroller-General of Nigeria Customs Service, Hameed Ali, has repeatedly claimed that China similarly shut its borders to international trading for decades and this somehow improved its economic fortunes. But this is not true. 

Following a partial closure exercise two months earlier, the Customs Service announced in October that it had banned the importation and exportation of goods through the country’s land borders to ensure “total control over what comes in”.

Despite widespread criticism from many quarters, including from the Economic Community of West African States, President Muhammadu Buhari earlier this month approved the extension of the closure till the end of January 2020.

To justify the closure weeks ago while addressing the press, Ali said in a widely shared video that China also closed its borders “for 40 years to the whole world and today they are great China”.

“Don’t you want to be great Nigeria?” he then asked.

Last Friday, the Customs boss insisted the federal government will not bow to pressure from neighbouring countries to reopen the borders, again citing the Chinese example—only now halving the number of years.

“The Chinese closed their doors for over 20 years and now they are on top,” he said.

“We need to close our own. There is nothing that is being produced today that we cannot consume in Nigeria. Our industrialists do not have to look out to find the market; we have it right here. And we need to grow that market.”

No evidence this ever happened

The ICIR has found no record proving that China, on its way to becoming a global economic powerhouse, ever shut its frontiers totally to international trade. The contrary appears, in fact, to be the case.

Fatima-Zohra Er-Rafia, an independent researcher and PhD in Business Administration with a focus on China and Japan noted in a 2018 publication that the first of four major factors that made China become the World’s second economic power is “Deng Xiaoping’s opening-up-to-the-world policies and the 1979 Equity Joint Venture Law”. (Xiaoping was China’s paramount leader between 1978 and 1992.)

“Together they have allowed (among other things) foreign capital and Western companies to enter China, transforming the domestic economic landscape entirely from one that is traditional and obsolete to one that is dynamic and modern,” she wrote.

The Chinese, however, did put in place some measure of border closure in the 15th century in reaction to an influx of foreign merchants and settlers and in order to protect local traditions. The isolation of the empire started during the Ming dynasty and continued into Qing dynasty.

Through a series of isolationist policies known as the haijin (or sea ban), the empire ordered the restriction of private maritime trading. Trading still occurred during this period though through piracy and smuggling, and local authorities even disregarded the law by engaging in illicit trading. Nevertheless, the restrictions led to a loss of revenue from taxation, funding difficulties, and a rise in poverty levels.

‘Not in recent times,’ says expert

Hans van de Ven (FBA), a professor of Modern Chinese History at the University of Cambridge, told The ICIR that China has not closed its borders “in recent times” as suggested by Ali.

“If your official is referring to the People’s Republic, China was subject to a US embargo until the 1970s, and hence couldn’t trade with US-allied countries, but that is rather different than China closing its door,” said Hans, who is also a Guest Professor at Nanjing University’s Department of History.

“In this period, China did trade with and exchange personnel with Communist countries. During the Qing dynasty, China did close its doors to foreign trade for a couple of decades, but it needed foreign trade and so opened them again.”

He further emphasised that the link between China closing its country and hence having a vibrant economy, as implied by the Customs boss, “seems very difficult to defend”.

The total trade embargo imposed by the United States followed China’s intervention in the Korean War in the late 1950s and was ended by US President Richard Nixon.

Also writing in response to enquiries from The ICIR, Michael Szonyi, a professor of Chinese History at Harvard University and Director of the Fairbank Center for Chinese Studies, described the claim as “factually inaccurate”.

“At no point in the twentieth-century did China (or any political regime governing China) close its borders to international trade,” he said.

“While China’s international trade did vary considerably over the Maoist period, the increase of China’s international trade in the late 1970s coincides with the rapid growth in the Chinese economy (though the causal relationship between these phenomena continues to be debated).”

World Bank statistics negate claim

A look through data from the World Bank shows that there was no time in China’s history, from 1960 till date, when either imports or exports of goods and services seized completely.

In 1960, imports into the country were worth $2.6 billion and have risen over the years to an all-time high of $2.5 trillion in 2018. The lowest point was in 1962 when imports were worth $1.4 billion. The steep in imports noticeably started in the 1990s.

The data on exports show a similar trend. All exports were worth $2.6 billion in 1960 and have risen to $2.7 trillion in 2018. The lowest value was $1.9 billion in 1962.

Interestingly, statistics from the World Bank also reveal that the ascending curve in China’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) corresponds sharply and proportionally to the curves representing the weight of its imports and exports. This means the country’s GDP increased at the same time and rate as transactions with other countries received a boost.

The trend of China’s GDP, import, and export growths. Source: World Bank National Accounts Data

“Through the 1990s, China began to clock rapid growth rates and joining the World Trade Organisation in 2001 gave it another jolt. Trade barriers and tariffs with other countries were lowered and soon Chinese goods were everywhere,” the BBC reported in October, citing David Mann, global chief economist at Standard Chartered Bank.

‘It is a fallacy’

Former BudgIT head of research and Senior Project Officer at the International Budget Partnership, Atiku Samuel, also described the claim that China closed its borders to the whole world as “actually a fallacy”.

“China has never and will never close its borders to the whole world,” he emphatically told The ICIR.

“What they had was more of a stringent, regimented trade agreement … The second thing is that there is no nation, even North Korea that in quote people believe now that they have a closed border, they still do trade with their neighbours. They still do trade with China. They still do some level of trade with other people in the world. And that’s about the most closed economy you can think about now. In clear terms, a country cannot exist without doing trade with its neighbouring countries.”

Samuel said the situation in (West) Africa is a complex one since the communities in various countries were already trading among themselves before modern borders were introduced.

“My own conclusion is that nothing like that exists in the world. I am yet to see it. What you can have is some level of restriction around trade. And then even the modalities for ensuring you have a closed system can never happen in Nigeria, except we have money to fence all the 4000 kilometres (of the border).”

The policy analyst also said, in 2015, Nigeria exported goods worth about N1.04 trillion to West African countries and imported about only N74 billion worth of goods.

Indeed, according to data from the Observatory of Economic Complexity (OEC), between 2010 and 2017, Nigeria exported goods worth up to $25.04 billion to other West African countries while it imported only goods worth $9.09 billion. And, in 2017 alone, its export value to the region was $2.6 billion, far outweighing its import value of $309.1 million.

The implication of this, Samuel explained, is that “Nigeria has more advantage in terms of trade with West Africa … We sell more to them than we actually take from there. That is given. That is a statistic of government”.

He said, with the border closure, Nigeria is not only breaching the ECOWAS free-trading policy but is also encouraging smuggling and black market transactions.

The solution, he concluded, is to address why goods produced locally cannot compete with cheaper ones from other countries and to make legitimate importation hassle-free by improving the ports.

“We need to look at why the cost of production in Nigeria is high and we need to begin to address those issues. That is the only practical way to stop unnecessary importation.”

Verdict

The claim made by the Customs boss that China, towards becoming a global superpower, closed its borders to the whole world is false. China made that move in the 15th and 16th century, but not only were the protectionist policies unsuccessful and widely disobeyed, they also led to increased poverty levels and reduced government revenue.

The rise of China’s GDP, The ICIR likewise observed, in fact, corresponds over the years with an increase in trading with other countries.

The country did not close its borders in the 20th century when its economic indices sharply improved but rather was on the receiving end of a 21-year trade embargo imposed by the United States and its allies.

FACT CHECK: Fake photos shared during Kogi/Bayelsa elections

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By Seun DUROJAIYE.

DESPITE public outcry against the rise of information disorder in Nigeria,   partisan groups and social media trolls still circulated images that turned out to be misleading during the governorship elections held on Saturday, November 16  in Kogi and Bayelsa States.

Many photos have been posted and shared on various social media platforms, illustrating violence, disruptions of the electoral process and vote buying as captured in the two states. While some of the images tell the true story, others are deployed to mislead Nigerians.

The ICIR finds some of such photographs to be dated and explains how we arrived at this conclusion.

Number 1

An image of youths holding of cudgels was shared on three different platforms including; Vanguard Newspaper, a Facebook page identified as The Buharist Reporters and a Facebook user identified as Shima Ate.

On the Vanguard Newspaper, the image was used to report an attack of journalists by thugs at Ayaingba, Kogi state.

The same image and link was reshared by Facebook user Shima Ate on his personal page and the image was shared also by the Facebook page, The Buhari Reporters, that used it to report that “INEC cancelled polls in Ologi Ogbla LGA in Bayelsa State.

A search was conducted on the image using a reverse image search engine, Tineye, and it was found that the image has been used 140 times with the earliest post shared on July 2016 by a blog called Ansutalktalk.

Number 2

A Twitter page, Confluenceviews, shared two photos, claiming that they depict disruptions perpetrated by thugs in Kogi state. One of the photos shared shows a collection of Permanent Voters Card (PVC) and a short gun. The caption shared with the photo reads: “Thugs nabbed with PVC and other materials this early morning.”

A check of the image was run on Tineye and it showed that the image was first shared in February 2019 by Naijapals under the file name ‘hoodlum PVC Ibom’.

Another image shared on the same page showed a group of men lying on the ground, and what appears to be seized weapons were laid close to them. The photo caption reads: “Some thugs identified to be working for PDP has been nabbed by the law enforcement agency”

A search on Tineye showed that the image was first shared in June 2015 on Lazywrita.com and tagged ‘political thugs’, the same image was again used by the same website in July 2015.

Number 3

Another photo was used by a Facebook page, Info Hq to report the disruption of elections in Anyigba, Kogi state, where hoodlums were reported to have snatched ballot boxes. A search on Tineye showed that image used by four different news sites with the earliest being shared in March 2019 by Dailypost.ng.

The ICIR’s check shows that all these photographs were used in a way that is dishonest and therefore finds them as misleading.